stored in: Elections 2016 and tagged:

Apparently even the Trump campaign didn’t think they were going to win:

“… The best data inside the Trump campaign and the RNC had Donald Trump’s chances of winning the presidency as a one-in-five proposition … RNC staffers thought Trump would win 240 Electoral College votes, 30 short of the 270 needed to win … The best data inside the Trump campaign was just as pessimistic …”

Amazing. Even more surprising is that turnout was down a bit this election:

Guess this explains why Hillary didn’t give a concession speech Tuesday night. She didn’t have one prepared.

stored in: Elections 2016 and tagged:

Not much surprises me anymore, but Donald Trump pulling off a win last night did.  Hillary beat him in the popular vote, but lost the electoral college.

On the positive side, it is immensely entertaining to see her lifelong dream go down in flames and the reaction from her supporters is priceless.

On the negative side Trump didn’t run on limiting/reducing government like Reagan. He ran on running government “better”. Trump supporters are going to find out those aren’t the same thing.

Libertarians were winners with Gary Johnson getting ~3.8 million votes. So were the NRA who put $20+ million into the campaign as Chuck Todd notes:

Republicans remain in control of both houses of Congress, albeit with smaller majorities. Chuck Schumer is set to become Senate Minority Leader next year. He is going to be point-man in blocking NRA’s agenda, especially for SCOTUS replacements.

At the state level, it appears the Republicans, with some help, will maintain control of the State Senate. Incumbent Michael Venditto is behind in SD-8, but Chris Jacobs won in SD-60. The Assembly stays pretty much the same so next session will probably be a lot like this session. Fortunately, I still have some tequila left over from yesterday.

stored in: Elections 2016 and tagged:

I voted this morning for Gary Johnson.

All that is left to do is wait out the day until the polls close.  I am prepared for the results.

mas tequila

stored in: Elections 2016, Politics and tagged:

No matter what the outcome of tomorrow’s election, there is already one clear winner: Senator Jeff Klein.  With Senator Jesse Hamilton announcing that he is joining the IDC, Klein will have at least a seven member caucus next year.

This also reinforces my belief that the Republicans are going to lose seats and will have to form a coalition with the IDC again, only they will be in a somewhat weaker position than last time.

stored in: Elections 2016 and tagged:

It’s always a good idea to follow the money.

In this case Politico reports, “Over two-thirds of Assembly party money goes to four races.”  Those races include AD-113, AD-115, AD-116, and AD-145. Three other big money races include AD-106, AD-121, and AD-126.

Out of these I believe the three antigun incumbents mostly likely to lose are:

  • AD-145, where incumbent John Ceretto flip-flopped on party registration.
  • AD-116, where incumbent Addie Russell barely won re-election last time by less than 100 votes.
  • AD-106 where incumbent Didi Barrett doesn’t even live.  NRA is doing robocalls for challenger Terry Sullivan.
stored in: Elections 2016 and tagged:

RRH elections has now posted their analysis of New York’s Congressional races.

Some comments:

  • CD-1, Lee Zeldin keeps his seat.
  • CD-2,Peter King is a machine hack” is the dead on accurate.
  • CD-3, Both candidates stink, but Jack Martins behavior, from voting for the SAFE Act to screwing over Phil Pidot in the primary, makes him worse.  In the end I think Tom Suzzoi wins the seat.
  • CD-18, I agree incumbent Sean Maloney is the favorite to win re-election.  The thing about him is I never heard anything good or bad about him.  He’s just there, occasionally mentioned in the newspaper at having attending a meeting or something.
  • CD-19, Zephyr Teachout is batshit nuts, but is running a much better campaign than John Faso.  She wins.  Democrat pick-up.
  • CD-22, Because it is a three-way race with independent Martin Babinec sucking about about a quarter of the votes, I believe Claudia Tenney will get enough of a plurality of the votes to win the seat.
  • CD-25, Incumbent Louise Slaughter keeps her seat.  I have heard absolutely nothing from Mark Assini.
stored in: Elections 2016, Politics and tagged:

In SD-60, the fix is in.

Last week there was this:

“In a visit to Buffalo Wednesday, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo declined to pick a candidate in the hotly contested Senate 60th district race between Democrat Amber Small and Republican Chris Jacobs. “I have not had a conversation in that race,’’ Cuomo said when asked about an endorsement in the Senate 60th race. “Yeah, you know it’s not as simple as saying ‘Democrat, Republican.’ You have to look at the person and you have to look at the person’s positions on issues and you have to look at the person’s background,’’ Cuomo said …”

This week it’s this:

“In a signal of its resource priorities in the closing days before the Nov. 8 elections, the chief fund-raising apparatus for Democrats in the state Senate has allocated zero dollars for Democrat Amber Small in her bid against Republican Chris Jacobs in the Senate 60th District contest in the Buffalo area. The Senate Republican Campaign Committee, meanwhile, transferred $347,000 to Jacobs during the past three weeks, and allocated an estimated $91,000 to various campaign activities on his behalf …”

The only variable is the voters in a district where registered Democrats out number Republicans almost 2-1.


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