That leaves Weschester County Executive Rob Astorino as the strongest likely challenger for Governor Cuomo in ’18. Each candidate had their owns strengths: Gibson being a somewhat “moderate” Republican and Astorino being better known in the NYC metro area. It is good that he decided to end it now because we do not need a primary contest. Personally I would have gone with Rob over Chris, but either would be an improvement over the incumbent.
Then this happened:
- De Blasio, aides accused of ‘criminal’ fundraising activity
- De Blasio team skirted campaign donation limits; investigators found ‘willful and flagrant’ violations ‘warranting prosecution’
- Vance confirms BOE-referred investigation into de Blasio team
- Something fishy in Monroe Democrats’ coffers
- De Blasio tied to ‘untraceable’ $50K for Kaminsky campaign
- De Blasio donation probe: How it’s tied to the Hudson Valley
- Ulster County Democratic Committee, former state Sen. Cecilia Tkaczyk linked to federal, state political donations probes
Early indications point to this being worse than either the Shelly Silver or Dean Skelos corruption trials. It’s like God himself has thrown the Republicans a lifeline. It will be their #1 campaign issue this fall.
“… With votes still being counted, Republicans late Tuesday cautioned that paper ballots also still need to be counted in the contest. At midnight, with 100 percent of the precincts reporting, Kaminsky had 49.96 percent to McGrath’s 48.82 percent, a difference of just 780 votes out of 68,000 total cast, according to the Nassau County elections board …”
A couple of interesting points:
- It appears that Republicans had a slight turnout advantage in the district.
- A lot of people on Long Island switched parties since last fall.
UPDATE: Republican turnout was very high and they still managed to blow it.
Hillary Clinton and the antigunners, along with their allies in the media and legislature, are throwing everything they can at Bernie Sanders over his D- rating from NRA leading up to tomorrow’s New York primary.
Has it been working?
National NBC/WSJ poll: Clinton leads Sanders by just 2 pts, 50%-48%.
That's down from Clinton 53%, Sanders 44% last month
— Mark Murray (@mmurraypolitics) April 18, 2016
How did that go?
“… Republican Chris McGrath has opened an 8-point lead in the closely watched battle to fill the seat of disgraced ex-Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos, according to a new poll … The results are a sharp turnaround from a March 15th Siena poll, which had Kaminsky, a former federal prosecutor, holding a slim lead — 47% to 45% — in the 9th Senate District, which covers a portion of Nassau County …”
They never learn.
“Republican presidential hopeful John Kasich says he’s the state Senate Republicans’ best hope for maintaining their razor-thin grip on power … Speaking to reporters beforehand, Kasich revealed part of his pitch: If Donald Trump or Texas Sen. Ted Cruz win the GOP nod, it will hurt the Republican senators’ chances at winning in November. “I will tell you the majority in the New York State Senate will not be a majority with the other two guys being the nominee of the party,” Kasich said. “So what we really need to do is get these people, these critics, to get behind me and get their people to drop out so we can actually beat Hillary Clinton.” …”
I bet Kasich has been getting advice from the likes of Al D’Amato and/or RINO political consultants from the NYC metro area. The same guys who ran the state Republican party into the ground by making it Democrat-lite. The last thing they need to do is to get behind a candidate who would remind voters of George Pataki.
The Journal News has a breakdown of new voter registrations in the state:
“… While the number of active voters in the city dropped by about 100,000 from November to April, there were about 95,000 new voters in the rest of the state — including a rare increase in enrolled Republicans … Statewide, Republicans had a jump in enrollment as interest builds for the GOP primary in New York. Democrats had an even larger increase outside the city, up by about 50,000 voters, or 2 percent …”
This isn’t good news for the Republicans. Half their new registrations are in NYC where they are overwhelmed by Democrats between 6x and 13x except on Staten Island where it is only 1.6x. They might get some new donors out of it, but not likely any new electeds.
NYGOP chief Ed Cox is quoted as saying:
“… The party, he said, has expanded its voter outreach, such as putting up signs in gun stores to get customers to enroll as Republicans, trying to build off the anger of gun-rights groups to the state’s SAFE Act, a gun-control law adopted in 2013. “It’s all about building for us, in this very blue state, giving the grassroots of the Republican Party an exciting time, and they will be decisive in deciding who the nominee of the party is going to be and, as far as they are concerned, the next president of the United States,” Cox said …”
Uh Ed, the SAFE Act was passed with the full blessing on the Senate Republicans when Dean Skelos refused to even slow down the process. You own this. More importantly most of the new Democrat registrations are in Republican parts of the state like Bill Larkin’s district in SD-39. Reminding people who screwed them over is not a good idea.
“… “There’s a certain amount” of Trump enthusiasm fueling the new voter enrollments, “but it is also the fact that the political cycle and the dismay over the Obama administration – which is helping to fuel the Trump phenomenon,” Cox said …”
That is probably true to an extent as The Donald is a local. However, Trump’s 70% disapproval rating is not something I’d want to be attached to.