Chuck Todd’s prediction

On: By: admin

Some thoughts on this:

Whether backed by Gov. Cuomo or not, Democrats are already lining up to primary challenge de Blasio next year so that’s going to happen.

As to de Blasio himself challenging Cuomo in ’18, I don’t think he could successfully do that. He is not popular enough in the City, much less the entire state, to do that. I could see him getting behind someone like Eric Schneiderman should he decide to run against Cuomo.

At this point a primary fight is the only way I can see us ridding ourselves of Cuomo. The NY Republicans aren’t functioning as a statewide political party and do not have a lot of well known people they could put up against him. Even if they did, Cuomo would threaten the Senate GOP again and they would undermine their own nominee just like they did Rob Astornio in ’14. What we need is a scenario where both de Blasio and Cuomo can kill each other off.

A minority majority

On: By: admin

John Brooks has defeated incumbent Michael Venditto in SD-8 giving the Democrats a numeric majority of 32 seats in the State Senate.

Because Simcha Felder will continue to caucus with the Republicans, and because the rest of the Democrats don’t have their shit together, the GOP will maintain nominal control of the upper chamber.

He better follow through

On: By: admin

Trump better follow through on his promise to nominate candidates like Scalia for SCOTUS because the 9th Circuit Court just issued a ruling that a 10-day waiting period to purchase a firearm is constitutional.

The real idiocy about this is that is applies to people who already own guns.

Pushback from Mass. A.G.

On: By: admin

I found a link to the Boston Globe with some more antigun pushback from the Massachusetts A.G.:

“In a new fundraising appeal, Attorney General Maura Healey is promising to take President-elect Donald Trump to court … She ticked off new issues that could be litigated, including health care, gun laws, climate change, and Wall Street reforms …”

I guess she could file suit challenging something like reciprocity using material from the antis (see #1 and #2), but how effective would this be?  It is my understanding there were some states rights concerns pre-Heller and McDonald, but those have fallen by the wayside.

Realistic expectations

On: By: admin

There is a good article at The Resurgent, “Trump Will Disappoint Everyone.”

Excerpt from the gun stuff:

“… Trump got an early endorsement from the NRA and is widely seen as a friend to gun owners. But in reality, it’s not a terribly high priority for him … Speeding up background checks, holding the line on awful “no fly no buy” laws, and generally supporting self-defense use of firearms is about the best we can hope for, and most of that is through the courts and congress. It’s not going to be a high priority–but hooray: it’s not Hillary …”

I can see Trump signing the reciprocity bill as payback for the endorsement, but that will require him and Mitch McConnell standing up to Chuck Schumer.  I don’t see him going all out for suppressors  and definitely not attacking the Hughes Amendment.

First antigun pushback

On: By: admin

There was much noise in the media after the election about the NRA advancing a pro-gun agenda in the new Congress including reciprocity.

Here is the first pushback on that I’ve seen:

“… Democrats have vowed to make sure that should a national reciprocity agreement surface in the senate, they will filibuster until it’s dead. Peter Ambler, executive director of Americans for Responsible Solutions, a gun control super PAC, said his organization plans to fight national reciprocity “tooth and nail,” threatening a Democratic filibuster of the legislation in the Senate … Connecticut Sen. Richard Blumenthal, a Democrat and ardent gun-control advocate, said he believes any version of a national reciprocity bill would be “dead on arrival” in the Senate, due to strong Democratic opposition …”

Here is where Trump will get a chance to back up his rhetoric with action. According to Mike Pence, Trump is planning “ambitious” 100 and 200 day agendas to fulfill his core campaign promises. He needs to publicly say reciprocity is on his agenda.

Minus one

On: By: admin

With all the ballots counted, John Brooks leads incumbent Senator Michael Venditto by 41 votes.

If seated, Long Island would have two Democrat Senators for the first time in decades.  Republicans are not willing accept this and will take it to court because, quite frankly, they have nothing else going for them.

Even if Brooks ultimately prevails the Republicans will still have a majority of 32 seats because Simcha Felder said he would continue to caucus with them.

Correction: Democrats did have two Senators from Long Island in ’09-’10. Brooks and Todd Kaminsky would be the first two from Nassau in a long time.

States rights

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Bearing Arms opines, “This Lawsuit Could Shatter ALL Federal Gun Control Laws“:

“… When Shane Cox began selling his homemade firearms and silencers out of his military surplus store, he stamped “Made in Kansas” on them to assure buyers that a Kansas law would prevent federal prosecution of anyone owning firearms made, sold and kept in the state … The case could reverberate across the country because it cites the Second Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, pitting the federal government’s right to regulate firearms against the rights of states …”

I foresee problems with this.

The Supremacy Clause basically says federal law trumps state law while the Printz case said that states cannot be compelled to enforce federal law.  Following this, the ATF could still enforce the NFA in Kansas.  Unless there is some other 10th Amendment cases that could be referenced here I don’t believe this tacit is going to work.

Interesting idea

On: By: admin

SAF is floating the idea that the Trump administration appoint a special prosecutor to go after municipalities which violate gun rights:

“… The Second Amendment Foundation suggested last week that Trump’s attorney general should appoint a “special assistant” in charge of defending gun rights … Among the first potential targets of a special assistant attorney general for gun rights, the group suggested, would be strict gun permitting laws in New York, California, New Jersey, Maryland, and Washington DC that require citizens to show a specific need for a gun before being granted a license to carry a firearm in public …”

I like the idea of going on offense with this tactic, but I’m not sure how well it would work.  We’ve already had some bad gun laws upheld at the Circuit Court level and any DOJ action would essentially be an attempt to re-litigate cases which our side already lost.

House Minority Leader Brian Higgins?

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Some rumor mongering from the Buffalo Chronicle, “Congressman Higgins contemplating bid for Minority Leader?”

“Rep. Brian Higgins (D-Buffalo) is considering a bid to unseat Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco) as Minority Leader of the House Democrats, says a source close to the Congressman. Pelosi is weathering a storm of critics following a fourth consecutive loosing election for House Democrats, who have been unable to retake the chamber since Pelosi was ousted as Speaker following the 2010 midterm elections …”

Exchanging Pelosi for Higgins would be a significant change for the Democrats both culturally and ideologically.  Higgins’ district represents “the deplorables“.  On guns, Higgins has been all over the place.  He started out as a D back in ’04, rose to A- in ’08 and went back down to a D this year.  This would still be a vast improvement over Pelosi.

While I can see a leadership challenge to Pelosi, I don’t think Democrats are willing to go that far.  Then there is the matter of whether the party would want both House and Senate leaders from the same state as Chuck Schumer is jonesing for the Senate spot.  I’m not seeing Higgins getting the job.