Surprise

On: By: admin

Apparently even the Trump campaign didn’t think they were going to win:

“… The best data inside the Trump campaign and the RNC had Donald Trump’s chances of winning the presidency as a one-in-five proposition … RNC staffers thought Trump would win 240 Electoral College votes, 30 short of the 270 needed to win … The best data inside the Trump campaign was just as pessimistic …”

Amazing. Even more surprising is that turnout was down a bit this election:

Guess this explains why Hillary didn’t give a concession speech Tuesday night. She didn’t have one prepared.

Election coda

On: By: admin

Not much surprises me anymore, but Donald Trump pulling off a win last night did.  Hillary beat him in the popular vote, but lost the electoral college.

On the positive side, it is immensely entertaining to see her lifelong dream go down in flames and the reaction from her supporters is priceless.

On the negative side Trump didn’t run on limiting/reducing government like Reagan. He ran on running government “better”. Trump supporters are going to find out those aren’t the same thing.

Libertarians were winners with Gary Johnson getting ~3.8 million votes. So were the NRA who put $20+ million into the campaign as Chuck Todd notes:

Republicans remain in control of both houses of Congress, albeit with smaller majorities. Chuck Schumer is set to become Senate Minority Leader next year. He is going to be point-man in blocking NRA’s agenda, especially for SCOTUS replacements.

At the state level, it appears the Republicans, with some help, will maintain control of the State Senate. Incumbent Michael Venditto is behind in SD-8, but Chris Jacobs won in SD-60. The Assembly stays pretty much the same so next session will probably be a lot like this session. Fortunately, I still have some tequila left over from yesterday.

Preparation is key

On: By: admin

I voted this morning for Gary Johnson.

All that is left to do is wait out the day until the polls close.  I am prepared for the results.

mas tequila

A clear winner

On: By: admin

No matter what the outcome of tomorrow’s election, there is already one clear winner: Senator Jeff Klein.  With Senator Jesse Hamilton announcing that he is joining the IDC, Klein will have at least a seven member caucus next year.

This also reinforces my belief that the Republicans are going to lose seats and will have to form a coalition with the IDC again, only they will be in a somewhat weaker position than last time.

Follow the money

On: By: admin

It’s always a good idea to follow the money.

In this case Politico reports, “Over two-thirds of Assembly party money goes to four races.”  Those races include AD-113, AD-115, AD-116, and AD-145. Three other big money races include AD-106, AD-121, and AD-126.

Out of these I believe the three antigun incumbents mostly likely to lose are:

  • AD-145, where incumbent John Ceretto flip-flopped on party registration.
  • AD-116, where incumbent Addie Russell barely won re-election last time by less than 100 votes.
  • AD-106 where incumbent Didi Barrett doesn’t even live.  NRA is doing robocalls for challenger Terry Sullivan.

Congressional rundown

On: By: admin

RRH elections has now posted their analysis of New York’s Congressional races.

Some comments:

  • CD-1, Lee Zeldin keeps his seat.
  • CD-2,“Peter King is a machine hack” is the dead on accurate.
  • CD-3, Both candidates stink, but Jack Martins behavior, from voting for the SAFE Act to screwing over Phil Pidot in the primary, makes him worse.  In the end I think Tom Suzzoi wins the seat.
  • CD-18, I agree incumbent Sean Maloney is the favorite to win re-election.  The thing about him is I never heard anything good or bad about him.  He’s just there, occasionally mentioned in the newspaper at having attending a meeting or something.
  • CD-19, Zephyr Teachout is batshit nuts, but is running a much better campaign than John Faso.  She wins.  Democrat pick-up.
  • CD-22, Because it is a three-way race with independent Martin Babinec sucking about about a quarter of the votes, I believe Claudia Tenney will get enough of a plurality of the votes to win the seat.
  • CD-25, Incumbent Louise Slaughter keeps her seat.  I have heard absolutely nothing from Mark Assini.

The fix is in

On: By: admin

In SD-60, the fix is in.

Last week there was this:

“In a visit to Buffalo Wednesday, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo declined to pick a candidate in the hotly contested Senate 60th district race between Democrat Amber Small and Republican Chris Jacobs. “I have not had a conversation in that race,’’ Cuomo said when asked about an endorsement in the Senate 60th race. “Yeah, you know it’s not as simple as saying ‘Democrat, Republican.’ You have to look at the person and you have to look at the person’s positions on issues and you have to look at the person’s background,’’ Cuomo said …”

This week it’s this:

“In a signal of its resource priorities in the closing days before the Nov. 8 elections, the chief fund-raising apparatus for Democrats in the state Senate has allocated zero dollars for Democrat Amber Small in her bid against Republican Chris Jacobs in the Senate 60th District contest in the Buffalo area. The Senate Republican Campaign Committee, meanwhile, transferred $347,000 to Jacobs during the past three weeks, and allocated an estimated $91,000 to various campaign activities on his behalf …”

The only variable is the voters in a district where registered Democrats out number Republicans almost 2-1.

Bonus:

Cuomo’s questionnaire

On: By: admin

Governor Cuomo has send out a 15-point candidate questionnaire to Democrats seeking his endorsement.  One of the questions asks if the candidate supports the SAFE Act.

I have never heard of any elected official sending out a questionnaire to people requesting their endorsement before.

Food for thought

On: By: admin

From The Resurgent, “Hillary Rodham Nixon Clinton, Because of Her Own Arrogance, Really May Lose“:

“Hillary Rodham Nixon Clinton may actually lose the election to Donald Trump. Why? Because she has operated as if the law does not apply to her and got caught … And if she wins, she’s going to be under investigation, stuck in congressional hearings, and buried under FBI leaks for four years. She’ll have no mandate and no legitimacy starting November 9th …”

From Kurt Schlichter, “Hey, What If Trump Actually Wins?“:

“… now we face a prospect only slightly less terrifying than Hillary slithering back into the Oval Office. It’s President Donald J. Trump, the guy whose entire appeal is based upon the fact that we, astonishingly, could do worse … beyond promising to MAGA, does anyone believe Trump has thought through the specifics? … In the off chance Trump wins, he’s almost certainly going to be terrible. But then, everyone (including me) said he could never get nominated, much less win. We might be surprised. Of course, it never hurts to hedge your bets, so buy ammo …”

Discretion can be good

On: By: admin

NRA spends a lot of time focusing on the Supreme Court when in fact they only hear a very small number of the gun cases out there. The bulk of the action takes place at the local level where gun owners should focus most of their attention.

For example, the Buffalo News reports on the race for Eric County District Attorney between Joe Treanor and John Flynn:

“… Treanor called New York’s controversial restrictions on military-style rifles “inherently flawed” and said he would use prosecutorial discretion to avoid turning “otherwise law-abiding citizens into convicted felons.” Countered Flynn: “It is a dangerous path to take if you are out there as a district attorney making a determination on what laws are flawed.” He said he’ll enforce all laws on the books …”

Flynn’s statement is total B.S.  There has to be prosecutorial discretion for no other reason then there simply aren’t the resources available to investigate and prosecute all matters which come before the D.A.’s office.

The choice here is clear.