Decline and fall

George Marlin has an excellent op-ed on the decline and fall of the Nassau County Republicans which makes for a good follow-up to Jack Martins’ welcome defeat on election day:

“… There was a time, however, when the Nassau GOP was the most respected and powerful political organization in the nation … But over time, the GOP machine began to rust.  Efficiently servicing the taxpayers took a backseat to rewarding political cronies with patronage and contracts … Meanwhile, the aging political machine’s influence at the polling booth continued to decline … The disastrous results on Election Day 2017 were the final nails in the coffin of the once mighty organization … Nassau Republicans are finished because their arrogance, incompetence and indifference to voter concerns has caught up with them …”

I would add the local Republicans sell-out first on Pataki’s 5-Point Plan then again on Cuomo’s SAFE Act played a big part in this collapse as well especially considering Martin’s campaigning loudly on his SAFE vote.

Say No to Spano

Now that George Latimer has won the Westchester County Executive’s race, he must give up his seat in the Senate.  That means a special election.

To the surprise of no one, the Spano name has come up:

“… Add Yonkers Mayor Mike Spano’s name to the list of Democrats considering a run for George Latimer’s soon-to-be-vacant state Senate seat. Spano confirmed Monday he has spoken to party leaders about a potential run for the state Legislature, where he served in the Assembly for nearly 20 years … Spano, meanwhile, has two years left in his second term as mayor. Yonkers has term limits that prevent him from seeking a third term in 2019 …”

As a general rule, whenever a Spano is on the ballot in Westchester, residents should reflexively vote for whomever their opponent is no matter who they are.  Mike is no exception.  Plus with Mike, you get Nick and nobody wants that.  He was an antigun Republican in the Assembly and switched to Democrat to become Mayor.  I’ve suspected for sometime he would make a run for county office, but with Astorino on the way out, he needs to find another gig.  Hopefully someone better jump in.

 

 

Election aftermath

Gun owners did not do well in yesterday’s election.  Moving from Long Island, here are the results:

Even before the election, Democrats made it known they would make a push for more gun control in Albany when the legislature returns to sessions in January:

“… Will gun control supplant abortion rights as a wedge issue in 2018? It may, at least in the state Senate … Now Senate Democrats, in the wake of recent mass shootings, including Sunday’s murder of 26 people in Sutherland Springs, Texas, are poised to launch a push for tougher gun laws with January’s legislative session …”

Of course they are.

“… Still, if history is a predictor, Senate Republicans will likely reject tougher gun control laws just as they have with abortion rights …”

Don’t count on that. If Astorino won, we’d be in a better position.

Sheriff Howard ahead in polls

Erie County Sheriff Tim Howard has been a vocal critic of the SAFE Act since it’s inception.

He’s up for re-election this year and I’ve been searching for polling data to see how he’s doing.  Erie has an almost 2-1 Democrat enrollment advantage.  Only thing I could find was this Buffalo News article on his opponent:

“… Even though [Bernard Tolbert] should compete this year as a favorite in heavily Democratic Erie County, most polls show him trailing — though far from out of it …”

Good.  We need to keep Howard around.

Dick move, Joel

Joel Tyner is an antigun county legislator from northern Dutchess.  He’s also batshit nuts.  He gave these out on Halloween:

Joel Tyner's Halloween Handout

I’d have egged his house.

 

16%

A new poll shows incumbent Rob Astorino in a statistical tie with challenger George Latimer.

Of note is this finding:

“… 16% said the most important issue is gun shows at the Westchester County Center …”

Since gun control advocates have never been able to turn out the vote I am going to assume this is 2A people upset at Latimer’s efforts to prohibit them.

Support the Con Con

There will be a question on the November ballot asking whether or not the state should hold a constitutional convention.  If approved there would be future votes on choosing delegates then actual changes to the constitution.

Looking at it from strictly a 2A perspective, I don’t believe there is much to get out of a Con Con:

  • For antigunners, there’s no real need.  The legislature can pass gun control bills at will.  The Governor just does not want more of it right now.
  • For pro-gunners, it’s doubtful we would get anything through.  I could see a creatively crafted re-wording of the pistol licensing law prohibiting discrimination that would make the state “shall issue”, but would it pass the voters?  Probably not.

With 2A off the table, the benefits of a Con Con to gun owners would be indirect.  I can see these items proposed and passed:

  • Term limits.  Far too many old farts have been around for 30+ years.  Albany needs new blood.
  • Fair redistricting.  Districts look as if someone sneezed on a map.  Doing it fairly would wipe out the Republicans, but that is going to happen anyway.
  • End to fusion ballots.

These would make elections much more competitive thereby giving gun owners more clout and that is what we sorely need in Albany.

Who is opposing the Con Con?  The bulk of the money is coming from unions and lawyers.  They’re not antigun per se, but are largely responsible for the culture of cronyism and corruption.  If their power is diminished that is a good thing.

Vote Yes on the Con Con.

Westchester poll shows close race

An internal Democrat poll shows George Latimer leading incumbent Rob Astorino in the Westchester County Executive’s race 47% to 46%.

Because of the source there is likely significant bias which means Astorino is probably doing better than polling suggests. You get a hint of that with this acknowledgement:

“… The Latimer campaign internal poll shows 52% have a favorable view of Astorino and 38% an unfavorable one. For Latimer, 46% view him favorably and just 24% unfavorably …”

Anyone interested in helping Astorino can e-mail Rob Alberty or call the campaign at 917-755-6162.

Getting ugly

The battle for Westchester County Executive between Rob Astorino and George Latimer is getting ugly.  The campaigns are calling each other names: Astorino is a crook while Latimer is a tax cheat.

This is the most important race for 2A in the state this year, with gun shows being a hot topic which came up again during Tuesdays debate:

“… The two disagreed over allowing gun shows at the county-owned Westchester County Center. Astorino, who vetoed a bill that would’ve banned such shows, said Latimer was demonizing law-abiding gun owners. Latimer said gun shows sent the wrong message about Westchester values the same way hosting a pornography show might …”

As State of Politics points out, the outcome of this race has broader political implications:

“… But in the suburbs, bellwethers of New York’s political sentiment, two hotly contested races are underway for county executive that could shape 2018’s electoral landscape for the state. In Westchester County, Democratic state Sen. George Latimer is challenging Republican incumbent Rob Astorino, the 2014 GOP candidate for governor who is believed to be considering a second run against Gov. Andrew Cuomo next year … Both suburban New York City counties — traditional havens for Republican votes — have become more Democratic in recent years. But Republicans have hung on in the county executive posts, underscoring the low Democratic turnout in odd numbered years and the GOP’s drumbeat of a key local suburban issue: Property taxes … “If Rob Astorino were to lose that election, that would be seismic,” said Morgan Hook of SKDKnickerbocker …”

There are only a handful of New York Republicans who both are supportive of 2A and who I believe have the potential for greater things and Astorino is one of them.  It is important for gun owners to support him even if he ultimately decides against another gubernatorial bid.

Signs of the season

Campaign tip: Make sure the town has done the last grass cutting of the season before putting up signs along public roads otherwise they will get taken out by the mower.

Political signs

Links:

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