Decline and fall

George Marlin has an excellent op-ed on the decline and fall of the Nassau County Republicans which makes for a good follow-up to Jack Martins’ welcome defeat on election day:

“… There was a time, however, when the Nassau GOP was the most respected and powerful political organization in the nation … But over time, the GOP machine began to rust.  Efficiently servicing the taxpayers took a backseat to rewarding political cronies with patronage and contracts … Meanwhile, the aging political machine’s influence at the polling booth continued to decline … The disastrous results on Election Day 2017 were the final nails in the coffin of the once mighty organization … Nassau Republicans are finished because their arrogance, incompetence and indifference to voter concerns has caught up with them …”

I would add the local Republicans sell-out first on Pataki’s 5-Point Plan then again on Cuomo’s SAFE Act played a big part in this collapse as well especially considering Martin’s campaigning loudly on his SAFE vote.

Say No to Spano

Now that George Latimer has won the Westchester County Executive’s race, he must give up his seat in the Senate.  That means a special election.

To the surprise of no one, the Spano name has come up:

“… Add Yonkers Mayor Mike Spano’s name to the list of Democrats considering a run for George Latimer’s soon-to-be-vacant state Senate seat. Spano confirmed Monday he has spoken to party leaders about a potential run for the state Legislature, where he served in the Assembly for nearly 20 years … Spano, meanwhile, has two years left in his second term as mayor. Yonkers has term limits that prevent him from seeking a third term in 2019 …”

As a general rule, whenever a Spano is on the ballot in Westchester, residents should reflexively vote for whomever their opponent is no matter who they are.  Mike is no exception.  Plus with Mike, you get Nick and nobody wants that.  He was an antigun Republican in the Assembly and switched to Democrat to become Mayor.  I’ve suspected for sometime he would make a run for county office, but with Astorino on the way out, he needs to find another gig.  Hopefully someone better jump in.

 

 

Pressure is building

Watch the pressure building.

Daily News, “Progressive group targets Cuomo and Senate IDC“:

“… A progressive grassroots activist group has started a post-card campaign calling on Cuomo to reunify the fractured state Senate Democrats. The campaign by Rise and Resist focuses on the “destructive relationship” between Cuomo and the the Independent Democratic Conference, a group of eight breakaway Dems aligned with the Senate Republicans …”

Times Union, “IDC leader Jeff Klein gets first primary challenger“:

Bronx state Sen. Jeff Klein, leader of the breakaway eight-member Independent Democratic Conference, has his first 2018 Democratic primary challenger. Lewis Kaminski recently registered a campaign committee to raise money for a potential run against Klein, according to state Board of Elections records …”

New York Post, “Top Dem blames Cuomo for GOP-controlled state Senate“:

“A top state Senate Democrat is publicly blaming Gov. Cuomo for allowing Republicans to control of the Senate. The charge was made by Queens’ Mike Gianaris, chair of the Senate Democratic Campaign Committee, in a speech to state’s Progressive Action Network on Oct. 15 …”

Building toward a crescendo:


Election aftermath

Gun owners did not do well in yesterday’s election.  Moving from Long Island, here are the results:

Even before the election, Democrats made it known they would make a push for more gun control in Albany when the legislature returns to sessions in January:

“… Will gun control supplant abortion rights as a wedge issue in 2018? It may, at least in the state Senate … Now Senate Democrats, in the wake of recent mass shootings, including Sunday’s murder of 26 people in Sutherland Springs, Texas, are poised to launch a push for tougher gun laws with January’s legislative session …”

Of course they are.

“… Still, if history is a predictor, Senate Republicans will likely reject tougher gun control laws just as they have with abortion rights …”

Don’t count on that. If Astorino won, we’d be in a better position.

Sheriff Howard ahead in polls

Erie County Sheriff Tim Howard has been a vocal critic of the SAFE Act since it’s inception.

He’s up for re-election this year and I’ve been searching for polling data to see how he’s doing.  Erie has an almost 2-1 Democrat enrollment advantage.  Only thing I could find was this Buffalo News article on his opponent:

“… Even though [Bernard Tolbert] should compete this year as a favorite in heavily Democratic Erie County, most polls show him trailing — though far from out of it …”

Good.  We need to keep Howard around.

Dick move, Joel

Joel Tyner is an antigun county legislator from northern Dutchess.  He’s also batshit nuts.  He gave these out on Halloween:

Joel Tyner's Halloween Handout

I’d have egged his house.

 

16%

A new poll shows incumbent Rob Astorino in a statistical tie with challenger George Latimer.

Of note is this finding:

“… 16% said the most important issue is gun shows at the Westchester County Center …”

Since gun control advocates have never been able to turn out the vote I am going to assume this is 2A people upset at Latimer’s efforts to prohibit them.

Support the Con Con

There will be a question on the November ballot asking whether or not the state should hold a constitutional convention.  If approved there would be future votes on choosing delegates then actual changes to the constitution.

Looking at it from strictly a 2A perspective, I don’t believe there is much to get out of a Con Con:

  • For antigunners, there’s no real need.  The legislature can pass gun control bills at will.  The Governor just does not want more of it right now.
  • For pro-gunners, it’s doubtful we would get anything through.  I could see a creatively crafted re-wording of the pistol licensing law prohibiting discrimination that would make the state “shall issue”, but would it pass the voters?  Probably not.

With 2A off the table, the benefits of a Con Con to gun owners would be indirect.  I can see these items proposed and passed:

  • Term limits.  Far too many old farts have been around for 30+ years.  Albany needs new blood.
  • Fair redistricting.  Districts look as if someone sneezed on a map.  Doing it fairly would wipe out the Republicans, but that is going to happen anyway.
  • End to fusion ballots.

These would make elections much more competitive thereby giving gun owners more clout and that is what we sorely need in Albany.

Who is opposing the Con Con?  The bulk of the money is coming from unions and lawyers.  They’re not antigun per se, but are largely responsible for the culture of cronyism and corruption.  If their power is diminished that is a good thing.

Vote Yes on the Con Con.

A Miner-Williams challenge to Cuomo?

CNN reports, “9 Democratic primaries to watch in 2018“:

“… there is a lot worth watching as Democrats sort out their candidates, and priorities, ahead of the November 2018 elections. Here are a few races, some big and others probably below the radar, that could give us a hint about where the party is headed … 6. New York: Who’s going to take a run at Cuomo? … a tougher-than-expected 2018 primary race could take a potential 2020 presidential bid off the table for Cuomo — and augur trouble for similar, more moderate blue-state Democrats around the country …”

That leads us to this:

“… Outgoing Syracuse Mayor Stephanie Miner and New York City Councilman Jumaane Williams, both Democrats, were coy in a joint radio appearance Thursday when asked if they might unite to form a gubernatorial ticket next year …”

Miner is the better known of the two which, in this case, isn’t saying much.

On 2A, both are antigun.  Miner is an advocate while Williams is an activist.

How much of a threat to the Governor would they be?

Previous polling shows Cuomo would defeat Miner in a primary.  I am unaware of any polling regarding Williams, but the Democrat base has problems with him on other social issues.

Westchester poll shows close race

An internal Democrat poll shows George Latimer leading incumbent Rob Astorino in the Westchester County Executive’s race 47% to 46%.

Because of the source there is likely significant bias which means Astorino is probably doing better than polling suggests. You get a hint of that with this acknowledgement:

“… The Latimer campaign internal poll shows 52% have a favorable view of Astorino and 38% an unfavorable one. For Latimer, 46% view him favorably and just 24% unfavorably …”

Anyone interested in helping Astorino can e-mail Rob Alberty or call the campaign at 917-755-6162.

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