It’s about abortion, not guns

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Michael Filozof at American Thinker opines, “The Kavanaugh fight isn’t about abortion. It’s about guns.”

“… The Kavanaugh confirmation is about the future, not refighting the cultural battles of the 1970s. And next up on the Democratic agenda is sweeping, national gun control – and possibly even confiscation …”

I don’t agree with this.

Yes, there are politicians including Governor Cuomo that would be upset if their signature gun control laws were shot down by SCOTUS.  However, the main difference between the issues is that abortion has a legitimate grassroots surrounding it and gun control does not.

Democrat politicians aren’t stupid.  They are not going to put a lot of effort into issues that do not give them a positive return at election time.  This is why gun control is largely dead on the national level and all but a handful of states like New York.  Abortion isn’t.  SCOTUS issued a ruling that largely kept that issue from being fought in the states.  If it were overturned that’s where it would go.  If SAFE were overturned most of the country would be unaffected.  This is why whenever their is a court vacancy or a significant ruling about to come down abortion protestors can be seen with signs outside rallying.  Gun control advocates don’t do that because they can’t.  The culture war on guns has largely been won by 2A.  The same cannot be said about abortion.

Giffords’ endorsements

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Coming on the heels of Everytown’s endorsments, Giffords’ has made some endorsements of their own for the fall elections:

Some thoughts on these:

  • Unlike like Bloomberg’s these appear to have been done in-house.  That does not mean they have a legitimate grassroots, just that they have at least one person on staff with some political knowledge.
  • The incumbent endorsements are just for prestige, like what NRA does.  Since incumbents usually win this gives them the ability to say later on that 85% (or whatever) of Giffords-endorsed candidates won.
  • It is unclear what, if anything, comes with the endorsements.  Money, mailings, etc.

Newsbits

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Friday’s Newsbits:

Elections:

Jurisprudence:

Politics:

Guess who’s back, back again …

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Mayor Bloomberg is back.

Politico reports:

“Everytown for Gun Safety, the pro-gun control group founded by former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, is rolling out a $5 million digital ad campaign targeting 15 House races, as the group continues heavy investment in the midterm elections … The group is also going after seven open, Republican-controlled seats representing districts that include suburbs in metro areas from Seattle to New York City …”

Who are they targeting?  According to Slate:

“… All 15 of its targets are on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s “Red to Blue” list, districts with strong Democratic candidates with potential to defeat the incumbent Republican or keep their seats in a contentious race …”

That gives us this list:

A few thoughts:

First, this isn’t a grassroots effort.  It’s just Mayor Mike funneling his cash through Everytown.  More astroturf.

Second, this is just plain lazy.  I know from experience that surveying candidates and trying to figure out where to put resources is a big effort that takes a long prep time.  Everytown clearly didn’t do any of that if they admit to using DCC’s list.

Third, they are targeting antigun Republican Dan Donovan in CD-11.  Giving the finger to your supporters is not smart.

Fourth, in CD-19 Delgado is largely avoiding gun control with only a vague statement about treating “gun violence” as a public health issue on his campaign website.  With it being a 4-way race the campaign does not seem to believe going hard for gun control would be good for them.

Newsbits

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Monday’s Newsbits:

Elections:

Jurisprudence:

Politics:

SAFE on the campaign trial

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Marc Molinaro brought up the SAFE Act while campaigning in Utica:

“… Molinaro said he would dismantle the SAFE Act; something he said would make the state safer. He added that the focus should be on the root causes of violent acts and not making criminals out of honest citizens …”

Molinaro has a progun record from his time in the Assembly and as Dutchess Co. Executive and there is nothing wrong with campaigning on that record.

However, he does have a few problems:

  • His running-mate Julie Killian has antigun record.  This might be tolerable if she brought something positive to the campaign which she doesn’t given her proven track record of failure at the ballot box.
  • He publicly stated he does not want any help from the NRA.  It’s fine not to want to make gun control a central issue of the campaign and it is also fine not to want to accept any corporation donations.  But singling out NRA, and by extension members like me, can be construed as insulting.  NRA’s response should have been, “Fine.  Go fuck yourself.”
  • Republicans own the SAFE Act as much as the Cuomo and the Democrats do.

The Governor decided to pounce on Molinaro with this ad:

Cuomo too has some problems:

  • This ad isn’t effective.  It’s just nasty and tries to portray Molinaro himself as nasty.  I have never heard of anyone referring to Molinaro that way and is not very believable.
  • Just last week the Governor himself acknowledged that a key component of the SAFE Act, an ammunition sales database, has not been implemented and he doesn’t know when or if it ever will be up and running.
  • It is obvious that the vast majority of gun owners are simply refusing to comply with SAFE.
  • There is no pro-gun control voting block.

So what are the campaigns going to get from all this?  Nothing.  The negatives outweigh the positives for both of them.

Newsbits

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Tuesday’s Newsbits:

Elections:

Jurisprudence:

Legislation:

Politics:

Introducing Keith Wofford

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Republican A.G. candidate Keith Wofford is ramping up his campaign with a multi-million dollar ad campaign:

I assume this is a statewide buy. I saw one of his ads on WRGB.

I don’t know what his position on 2A is and I don’t expect him to bring it up during the campaign. Given that his opponent is an antigun zealot it doesn’t matter so much as his ability to make the A.G. race more competitive due to his fundraising prowness.

NRA phonebank for Zeldin & Faso

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NRA is running phonebanks for Congressmen Lee Zeldin (R-1) and John Faso (R-19).  Click on each name for information on how to participate.

The Cook Political Report currently lists CD-1 as Likely Republican and CD-19 as Republican Toss-Up. The latest Siena poll shows Faso with a slight lead over challenger Antonio Delgado while a Monmouth poll has Delgado a little ahead.

Primary aftermath

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Governor Cuomo has defeated Cynthia Nixon in the Democrat primary as expected. It cost him upwards of $20 million to do it compared to her $500,000 and she still scored roughly 37% of the vote.

Kathy Hochul defeated Jumaane Williams after grossly outspending him and still only received about 53%.

Letitia James received the Democrat nomination for Attorney General with about 40% in a 4-way race.

While not unexpected, none of this good for gun owners especially James’ win as she said she would use the office to investigate the NRA.  As for the Governor, the Daily Beast sums it up, “Andrew Cuomo Is America’s Problem Now.”

The Independence Democrat Conference is dead with 6 of 8 losing their primaries including ringleader Jeff Klein.  Good.  Fuck them.  This does mean, however, that there will be a unified Democrat conference next session even if Simcha Felder continues to do whatever he pleases.

In AD-106 challenger Will Truitt leads incumbent Didi Barrett by 3 votes in the Independence Party primary.  This is why I love primaries.

In AD-133 NRA endorsed incumbent Joe Errigo lost the GOP primary.  Marjorie Byrnes also supports gun rights so it doesn’t matter.

Ulster Co. Sheriff Paul VanBlarcum lost the Democrat primary, but will continue on the Republican line in the general election. He has been a strong advocate for gun owners.