First antigun pushback

On: By: admin

There was much noise in the media after the election about the NRA advancing a pro-gun agenda in the new Congress including reciprocity.

Here is the first pushback on that I’ve seen:

“… Democrats have vowed to make sure that should a national reciprocity agreement surface in the senate, they will filibuster until it’s dead. Peter Ambler, executive director of Americans for Responsible Solutions, a gun control super PAC, said his organization plans to fight national reciprocity “tooth and nail,” threatening a Democratic filibuster of the legislation in the Senate … Connecticut Sen. Richard Blumenthal, a Democrat and ardent gun-control advocate, said he believes any version of a national reciprocity bill would be “dead on arrival” in the Senate, due to strong Democratic opposition …”

Here is where Trump will get a chance to back up his rhetoric with action. According to Mike Pence, Trump is planning “ambitious” 100 and 200 day agendas to fulfill his core campaign promises. He needs to publicly say reciprocity is on his agenda.

Minus one

On: By: admin

With all the ballots counted, John Brooks leads incumbent Senator Michael Venditto by 41 votes.

If seated, Long Island would have two Democrat Senators for the first time in decades.  Republicans are not willing accept this and will take it to court because, quite frankly, they have nothing else going for them.

Even if Brooks ultimately prevails the Republicans will still have a majority of 32 seats because Simcha Felder said he would continue to caucus with them.

Correction: Democrats did have two Senators from Long Island in ’09-’10. Brooks and Todd Kaminsky would be the first two from Nassau in a long time.

States rights

On: By: admin

Bearing Arms opines, “This Lawsuit Could Shatter ALL Federal Gun Control Laws“:

“… When Shane Cox began selling his homemade firearms and silencers out of his military surplus store, he stamped “Made in Kansas” on them to assure buyers that a Kansas law would prevent federal prosecution of anyone owning firearms made, sold and kept in the state … The case could reverberate across the country because it cites the Second Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, pitting the federal government’s right to regulate firearms against the rights of states …”

I foresee problems with this.

The Supremacy Clause basically says federal law trumps state law while the Printz case said that states cannot be compelled to enforce federal law.  Following this, the ATF could still enforce the NFA in Kansas.  Unless there is some other 10th Amendment cases that could be referenced here I don’t believe this tacit is going to work.

Interesting idea

On: By: admin

SAF is floating the idea that the Trump administration appoint a special prosecutor to go after municipalities which violate gun rights:

“… The Second Amendment Foundation suggested last week that Trump’s attorney general should appoint a “special assistant” in charge of defending gun rights … Among the first potential targets of a special assistant attorney general for gun rights, the group suggested, would be strict gun permitting laws in New York, California, New Jersey, Maryland, and Washington DC that require citizens to show a specific need for a gun before being granted a license to carry a firearm in public …”

I like the idea of going on offense with this tactic, but I’m not sure how well it would work.  We’ve already had some bad gun laws upheld at the Circuit Court level and any DOJ action would essentially be an attempt to re-litigate cases which our side already lost.

House Minority Leader Brian Higgins?

On: By: admin

Some rumor mongering from the Buffalo Chronicle, “Congressman Higgins contemplating bid for Minority Leader?”

“Rep. Brian Higgins (D-Buffalo) is considering a bid to unseat Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco) as Minority Leader of the House Democrats, says a source close to the Congressman. Pelosi is weathering a storm of critics following a fourth consecutive loosing election for House Democrats, who have been unable to retake the chamber since Pelosi was ousted as Speaker following the 2010 midterm elections …”

Exchanging Pelosi for Higgins would be a significant change for the Democrats both culturally and ideologically.  Higgins’ district represents “the deplorables“.  On guns, Higgins has been all over the place.  He started out as a D back in ’04, rose to A- in ’08 and went back down to a D this year.  This would still be a vast improvement over Pelosi.

While I can see a leadership challenge to Pelosi, I don’t think Democrats are willing to go that far.  Then there is the matter of whether the party would want both House and Senate leaders from the same state as Chuck Schumer is jonesing for the Senate spot.  I’m not seeing Higgins getting the job.

Surprise

On: By: admin

Apparently even the Trump campaign didn’t think they were going to win:

“… The best data inside the Trump campaign and the RNC had Donald Trump’s chances of winning the presidency as a one-in-five proposition … RNC staffers thought Trump would win 240 Electoral College votes, 30 short of the 270 needed to win … The best data inside the Trump campaign was just as pessimistic …”

Amazing. Even more surprising is that turnout was down a bit this election:

Guess this explains why Hillary didn’t give a concession speech Tuesday night. She didn’t have one prepared.

Election coda

On: By: admin

Not much surprises me anymore, but Donald Trump pulling off a win last night did.  Hillary beat him in the popular vote, but lost the electoral college.

On the positive side, it is immensely entertaining to see her lifelong dream go down in flames and the reaction from her supporters is priceless.

On the negative side Trump didn’t run on limiting/reducing government like Reagan. He ran on running government “better”. Trump supporters are going to find out those aren’t the same thing.

Libertarians were winners with Gary Johnson getting ~3.8 million votes. So were the NRA who put $20+ million into the campaign as Chuck Todd notes:

Republicans remain in control of both houses of Congress, albeit with smaller majorities. Chuck Schumer is set to become Senate Minority Leader next year. He is going to be point-man in blocking NRA’s agenda, especially for SCOTUS replacements.

At the state level, it appears the Republicans, with some help, will maintain control of the State Senate. Incumbent Michael Venditto is behind in SD-8, but Chris Jacobs won in SD-60. The Assembly stays pretty much the same so next session will probably be a lot like this session. Fortunately, I still have some tequila left over from yesterday.

Preparation is key

On: By: admin

I voted this morning for Gary Johnson.

All that is left to do is wait out the day until the polls close.  I am prepared for the results.

mas tequila

A clear winner

On: By: admin

No matter what the outcome of tomorrow’s election, there is already one clear winner: Senator Jeff Klein.  With Senator Jesse Hamilton announcing that he is joining the IDC, Klein will have at least a seven member caucus next year.

This also reinforces my belief that the Republicans are going to lose seats and will have to form a coalition with the IDC again, only they will be in a somewhat weaker position than last time.

Follow the money

On: By: admin

It’s always a good idea to follow the money.

In this case Politico reports, “Over two-thirds of Assembly party money goes to four races.”  Those races include AD-113, AD-115, AD-116, and AD-145. Three other big money races include AD-106, AD-121, and AD-126.

Out of these I believe the three antigun incumbents mostly likely to lose are:

  • AD-145, where incumbent John Ceretto flip-flopped on party registration.
  • AD-116, where incumbent Addie Russell barely won re-election last time by less than 100 votes.
  • AD-106 where incumbent Didi Barrett doesn’t even live.  NRA is doing robocalls for challenger Terry Sullivan.