Cuomo is a nonfactor for 2016

Politico’s headline says it all, “Andrew Cuomo in 2016? Think again“:

“New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo developed an early posture after his 2010 election of keeping his head down and ignoring national politics, almost never venturing beyond his home turf for the states that settle presidential races.  Most believed it was essentially an act — one that he’d inevitably drop once he started pursuing his widely assumed ambition to be president …”

Which he did this past January with the so-called SAFE Act and his “women’s agenda.”

“… Three years later, Cuomo’s political lens is just as narrow.  And Democratic activists in early presidential states have come to conclude there’s no way he will run in 2016, whether Hillary Clinton is in the race or not.  He’s been so invisible on the national stage, they say — no speeches, no fundraising, no early-state networking — that even if Cuomo had a late change of heart, he’s done none of the legwork that would be needed to mount a credible campaign …”

Not true.  He tried for national attention with both gun control and feminist pandering.  That is what his whole State of the State address was about.  What happened was gun control blew up in his face so badly that it took the “women’s agenda” off the table and effectively knocked him out as a ’16 presidential contender.  Losing ~25 points off your approval rating can do that to a candidate.

“… Multiple early-state activists told POLITICO last week that while other Democratic presidential hopefuls have been courting them, laying the groundwork to run especially if Clinton doesn’t, Cuomo is a nonfactor in their minds.  Cuomo is simply not part of the discussion in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, where activists delight in their unique status in the nominating process and long to see candidates on repeated visits in the lead-up to primaries and caucuses …”

Oh, he was probably on their minds.  It’s what they were thinking that is the issue:  Cuomo = Loser.

“… Asked whether he puts any stock in the Cuomo-for-president talk, New Hampshire Democratic chairman Ray Buckley had two answers: “No” and “nope.”  “I have come to believe that he is quite content with the challenge of being the governor of New York and has every intention of remaining,” Buckley said. “It would be highly unusual for anyone who is considering running for president in this cycle or the next three or four cycles for me not to know it.” …”

Yeah right.  It was widely reported by national media that Cuomo wanted to be first in the nation with new gun control in order to use it as an issue to launch his presidential bid:

“… For Cuomo, who is eyeing a potential 2016 presidential run, the tough gun package gives him another signature achievement less than two years after winning passage of a bill to legalize gay marriage.  “It’s a big plus in the shadow campaign already being waged for 2016,” said University of Virginia political expert Larry Sabato …”

There is no way Buckley could not have known about Cuomo’s ambitions.

“… A Cuomo spokeswoman declined to comment …”

What would they say?  Andy screwed up?

“… Cuomo’s allies insist there would still be time for him to jump into a national race after his 2014 election and that his approach does not indicate he isn’t running …”

His approach indicates he realizes he screwed up.

“… They also argue that Cuomo’s strict New York focus could actually provide a winning message should he eventually run …”

Cuomo’s winning is the same as Charlie Sheen’s.

“… “No governor of the State of New York has ever ruled out being president!” said former DGA Executive Director Nathan Daschle in an email …”

Thankfully none in my lifetime made it.

“… Cuomo allies say there is no chance he’d challenge Clinton, the wife of the man who appointed him as HUD secretary in the 1990s.  But they have left open the idea that he could seize the moment if Clinton takes a pass …”

That’s the same as Pataki leaving the door open.

“… But unlike other potential Democratic 2016 hopefuls, Cuomo has given no reason to believe it’s anything more than an idea …”

That simply is not true.

“… Cuomo has amassed a socially liberal, fiscally moderate record that could be a good sell in a presidential general election …”

Then why did Cuomo’s approval rating plunge after SAFE?

“… And other than his work on gay marriage and gun control, Cuomo’s New York doings have been mostly walled off from the national discussion …”

No, gun control took him out of the national discussion after the public got a look at his position.

“… There has been growing national interest in the next generation of New York leaders …”

By whom?

“… but for now, it’s shifting to two former Cuomo employees, Gillibrand and the incoming mayor of New York, Bill de Blasio …”

That wasn’t the case this time just one year ago when his approval rating was in the low-mid 70s.  How the mighty have fallen.

Where’s my money?

Some crap from Brian Resnick at National Journal, starting with the title of his op-ed:

Lobbyists Profited Big Time From Sandy Hook Shooting

What profit?  I volunteer my time.  When is NRA going to give me my wheelbarrow full of cash?

“After the tragedy at Sandy Hook Elementary School last year, something was supposed to change … Before Newtown, gun control was always seen as a nonstarter … The shooting prompted President Obama to wake a waning liberal daydream—comprehensive gun reform—and make it his administration’s top domestic priority.  And then not much happened …”

Sure it did.  More states loosened their gun laws.

“… As gun control became a real legislative issue, Washington’s gun rights/reform lobbying machines kicked into high gear … Whereas gun-rights organizations went big on lobbying, gun-control groups went big on directly appealing to people through ads …”

And that tactic bombed bigtime for the antis, disproving the lie that 90% support prohibiting private transfers.  If the public really supported the “liberal daydream” then why didn’t they contact their representatives and demand action?  I covered that back in April.

Way, way too late Chuck

Chuck is still going off on plastic guns, “Plastic firearms concern Schumer”:

“Legislation to ban plastic guns that can’t be detected by metal detectors could head to the White House for President Barack Obama’s signature Monday night, hours before the current ban expires at midnight … Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said in an interview Friday he plans to separately propose expanding the law to require that all firearms have integral metal components detectable by X-ray machines.  Schumer and other Democrats are concerned about the use of commercially available 3-D printing technology that can produce guns from digital models …”

He’s way behind the times, “Cheap 3D printer works with steel“:

“The one thing that made 3D printed guns tolerable to the non-gun-owning community was that they were made of plastic, because metal 3D printers were costly. Now, a bunch of scientists from Michigan Tech are showing off a cheap 3D printer that fabricates in metal. Metal 3D printing isn’t new, but it’s been expensive until now. The open-source Michigan project, here, offers a bill of materials costing just under $US1,200 to build the 3D printer, controlled by a Linux computer. The printer, described in detail here, produces steel components, and while its creators describe it as “a work in progress”, they’ve already successfully produced simple shapes like sprockets …”

SAFE is impacting jobs

Yes, and …. ?

NY GOP party chief Ed Cox speaks:

Yes Ed, and you are going to do what with this? It is my understanding that you have no interest in making guns an issue in next years gubernatorial election because you think you’ve already got the gun vote locked up.

New York Republicans: Cash is King

Donald Trump for Governor?

“A group of Republican state legislators and political operatives are set to meet with Donald Trump on Wednesday in an attempt to convince him to run for governor, the Daily News has learned.  The Republican contingent will travel to Trump’s New York City office for what they recognize is a long-shot plea,  said Assemblyman David DiPietro … “As Republicans we need to cast a pretty wide net and find the best candidate to beat Gov. Cuomo and we think that Mr. Trump can beat Mr. Cuomo,” DiPietro said …”

Bullshit.

The one and only one reason they are considering this is because they believe Trump could self-finance his own campaign.

Is Cuomo messing with Christie and Astorino?

From Fred Dicker’s latest column:

Gov. Chris Christie’s “bizarre behavior’’ in refusing to say he’ll support a possible GOP challenger [Rob Astorino] to Gov. Cuomo next year could derail his chances to become president, state and national GOP insiders have told The Post … Cuomo claimed last week that Christie, the new head of the Republican Governors Association — an organization whose purpose is to elect GOP governors — had quickly called him to say The Post was wrong in reporting the New Jersey governor was ready to back Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino, should he become the Republican nominee for governor next”

Who knows what exactly was said between Christie and Cuomo.  It is possible Cuomo views Christie as a potential ’16 opponent and is deliberately screwing with him in hopes of derailing a presidential bid.

“… Democratic insiders say Cuomo and his political aides are engaged in an all-out effort to pressure Astorino not to run for governor next year.  “They’re trying to head off contributors to Astorino, spreading the word that he’s not going to run, trying to convince Republican money people that he doesn’t have a chance, and letting it be known that the governor won’t be happy with those who go with him,’’ said a source close to the state Democratic Committee …”

And now we know where Greg David’s fawning pro-Cuomo op-ed comes from.

If Cuomo and his agenda are really that popular, then what does it matter if Astorino runs against him or not?  He’d just roll right over him.  This reinforces my belief that behind the scenes Cuomo realizes he’s made a big mistake with SAFE and while he still believes he will be re-elected Governor next year, he sees his opportunity on the national stage slipping away.

A reality check on running against Cuomo

Greg David’s op-ed, “Run against Cuomo? A reality check“, needs a good fisking:

“You will raise no money.  Mr. Cuomo’s war chest was bulging with about $30 million as of Aug. 1, and he maintains the ability to raise almost whatever sum he wants.  He will not only seek contributions, he will make it clear that anyone who gives to you will become an enemy …”

Yes, Cuomo has a lot of money and yes, he will think of anyone who donates to his opponent as an enemy, but there is no reason to think that Rob Astorino (or Ed Mangano) would not be able to raise a respectable amount of money if they run serious campaigns, something the NY GOP has not done recently for statewide races.

“… Mr. Cuomo has a real record and you really don’t.  Fundamentally, the governor has restrained state spending, cut taxes on the middle class, reformed Medicaid, stood by education reform, fought public-sector unions to curb retirement costs, won gun-control legislation and tamed one of the world’s worst legislatures …”

Fundamentally, taxes and spending are up under Cuomo.  The state budget is larger now than it was four years ago and the economic climate is worse.  Westchester’s budget is actually smaller now then when Astorino first took office.  Gun control has cost Cuomo at least 25 points off his approval rating and as for taming the state legislature, that is just laughable.

“… You have no winning issues to run on …”

See above, plus hyrofracking for upstate jobs and cheaper, cleaner energy for downstate.

“… Look at history …”

Partially true, given the low quality candidates the Republicans have run as of late.  The key is taking the race seriously.  If whomever gets the nomination looks like loser cannon-fodder they are doomed.

Meet the candidates for SD-41

The R&P will be co-hosting a meet the candidates event next Wednesday in Putnam Co.

Of the possible candidates, the only one I’ve met personally is former Dutchess Co. Legislator John Forman.  The one known anti is Poughkeepsie Mayor John Tkazyik, who is a MAIG member and took Bloomberg money during his last election.