Cuomo preps antigun ad campaign

The NY Post reports:

“Gov. Cuomo is expected to unleash a $10 million package of TV attack ads designed to “define’’ his newly announced Republican challenger, Rob Astorino, as a “right-wing nut,” … The negative commercials will be primarily aimed at convincing independent and moderate voters, especially women, that Astorino holds what Cuomo has already branded as “extreme conservative’’ views on … gun-ownership rights … Longtime Democratic consultant Hank Sheinkopf said he expected Cuomo to unleash a series of costly harsh attacks — with a price tag of “about $10 million.” …”

Bring it on.  Cuomo blew $400,000 last year on a series of ads last spring through his “New Yorkers for Gun Safety” PAC trying to convince people the SAFE Act is a good thing.  Then he directed the state Democrat committee to spend probably over $1 million in a series of five full color flyers attacking Ed Manago for not support SAFE during last years Nassau County Executives race which Mangano ended up winning by 20 points. In addition, Astorino’s opponent last year Noam Bramsom spent heavy on antigun ads (1,2) and all that got him was a 10 point loss in the general election.

2nd Amendment Rally in Horseheads

Legislative Report #14

Legislative Report #14 is now online.

NYAGV tries to intimidate Astorino

Antis lame attempt at intimidation:

“New Yorkers Against Gun Violence called on Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino, a candidate for New York governor, to explain his opposition to the New York SAFE Act when he appears today in the Bronx.  Astorino has repeatedly criticized the landmark gun safety law, passed by a bipartisan legislature and signed by Governor Cuomo in January 2013.  He is on record as saying that it is “a bad law that accomplished nothing.” …”

Simple.  He doesn’t want his approval ratings to drop ~25% like Andrew’s did.  Given NYAGV tried and failed to make SAFE into a winning issue for their endorsed candidates in both the Westchester and Nassau County Executive’s races last year there is no reason for Astorino to pay any attention to them.

What God wants

God wants you to have a fugly AR-15.

Schneiderman’s phony public relations stunt

After Facebook tells antigun wackos they don’t sell guns, Eric Schneiderman sends out a press release touting an agreement with Facebook which doesn’t really do much of anything.

The NYC media will slobber all over Eric for this.

How Cuomo can lose

Liz Benjamin inadvertently shows how Gov. Cuomo can lose in November:

“… Roughly speaking, here’s how the vote is likely to break down in November: Upstate will count for from 45 percent to half of the vote on Election Day, while downstate (in this case, for argument’s sake, everything south of Orange County) will make up the other half.  The suburbs north of New York City will be very much in play if, as it appears will be the case, Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino is the Republican candidate for governor.  Cuomo will get a cushion out of New York City, carry Albany and Buffalo, put in a strong enough—if not overwhelming—performance everywhere else, and win easily …”

Here is an alternative theory:  Cuomo already lost the 45-50% of the upstate vote.  He loses Westchester, Rockland and Nassau, all of which went GOP last year, and there is low turnout in NYC.  That adds up to Cuomo losing this fall.

Polling shows SAFE an issue

The NY Post has an article on Rob Astorino which contains this nugget:

“… Astorino’s challenge to Cuomo will be built around what are being called “eight key issues’’ that polling has shown to be of real importance to voters. They are …   Upstate opposition to the governor’s anti-gun ownership “Safe Act,’’ which has been condemned in resolutions passed by all but two upstate counties …”

This contracts yesterday’s post on a NY Times story claiming Cuomo would attack Astorino on the issue.  Cuomo’s campaign must have similar poll data indicating it is a negative issue for him.

Cuomo’s machinations

From the NY Times, “Cuomo, Up for 2nd Term, Tries to Steer G.O.P. as It Picks His Rival“:

“Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo has raised an imposing $33 million, is riding high in the opinion polls and is expected to cruise to a second term this November.  But for a political tactician as restless as Mr. Cuomo, a nearly foregone conclusion is not good enough …”

Those opinion polls are biased and do not accurately reflect public opinion.  While I do give Cuomo the edge, I also believe he can be defeated this fall.

“… Mr. Cuomo, a Democrat, is taking the unusual step of involving himself in the selection of his challenger, telling some top Republicans that they should be leery of nominating Rob Astorino, the Westchester County executive, who is expected to announce his candidacy soon …”

It’s not that unusual a step for a one party to mess with another party’s candidates.  It goes on all the time in New York.

“… People with knowledge of the conversations have offered differing explanations for the governor’s motives.  Some think he is simply trying to muddle the Republican race in hopes of gaining a stronger margin of victory when he seeks re-election in November.  Others suspect that Mr. Cuomo may view the ambitious Mr. Astorino, who won re-election last year in the heavily Democratic suburbs north of New York City, as a more capable rival than he is letting on …”

I’m going with the later.

“… A third explanation, however, is full of palace intrigue: A number of people who have spoken to Mr. Cuomo say he also has expressed his desire to ensure that his eventual opponent is not far to the right on social issues.  This, he has argued, could alienate moderate Republicans and other voters so much that Republican candidates for the State Senate could suffer too, potentially costing Republicans control of the chamber …”

I do believe Cuomo wants to keep the Republicans in more or less control of the Senate mostly because so many of the Senate Democrats are thugs, crooks and crackpots.

“… In Mr. Cuomo’s conversations with Republicans, officials say, the governor has specifically warned that he would campaign hard against Mr. Astorino, painting him as a hard-line conservative — by highlighting his opposition to same-sex marriage, abortion rights and strict gun laws approved last year …”

Do it.  Gun control has been a big stinker for Cuomo.  That is why he devoted only two sentences on the topic in last month’s State of the State.  Nobody can seriously argue it has been a political plus for him.

“… “He’s told me that if Astorino runs, he is going to pound the hell out of him and talk about guns and gays, and it won’t be pretty and will hurt all of us,” said a Republican senator who asked not to be named …”

This is one of the Long Island RINOs talking.

“… Some Republicans say that in making a case against Mr. Astorino, Mr. Cuomo is also trying to undermine a potential challenger. Mr. Astorino, they say, has built a reputation for fiscal belt-tightening in wealthy Westchester, where Democratic voters outnumber Republicans two to one — roughly the same as the electorate statewide.  Democrats portrayed Mr. Astorino as a right-wing Tea Party extremist last year, but he campaigned on holding down taxes and easily defeated his Democratic opponent …”

This is what Cuomo is really worried about.

“… In addition to offering his commentary on Mr. Astorino, Mr. Cuomo has also tried to woo Republican donors and others who might be inclined to support a Republican.  Last month, and on Monday, the governor talked up his record to business leaders at the Harvard Club in Manhattan …“The room was filled with the kind of people you need to run a successful race statewide,” said Michael McKeon, who helped organize the two gatherings. Mr. McKeon, who served as a top aide to the state’s last Republican governor, George E. Pataki, also recruited Republican support for Mr. Cuomo when he ran for governor in 2010 …”

These are the last people any Republican candidate needs to associate with.  They’re a bunch of wealthy RINOs who deserve a lot of credit for helping to run the NY GOP into the ground.

“… A number of top Republicans said they have decided to back Mr. Astorino regardless of Mr. Cuomo’s wishes …”

The rest are spineless jellyfish.

“… A spokesman for the Senate Republicans, Scott Reif, said they planned to focus their re-election campaigns on subjects like job creation and tax cuts more so than social issues …”

Two issues which they’ve done absolutely nothing about to distinguish themselves from Cuomo and the NYC Democrats.  They are setting themselves up for failure.