Trump’s effect on State Senate race

On: By: admin

State of Politics reports that New York Republicans are unsure of what to do about Donald Trump:

“… as the national GOP establishment continues to find ways of denying him the nomination at their convention in Cleveland this summer, Republicans in New York are divided. Privately, some Republican operatives admit the party is in a bind over whether to embrace Trump and the new voters he’s brought to the polls or run away from him and his vulgar, racially charged rhetoric ahead of the general election … And yet, some Republicans see Trump’s potential for a big margin of victory in the presidential primary, to be held the very same day as the special election, as a potential boon for the GOP candidate in the race, attorney Chris McGrath …”

While there is still some debate about the merits of the former option, the latter scenario appears unlikely given these two things.

First, a lot of Trump’s support comes from Democrats and disenchanted voters. Democrats cannot vote in the Republican primary so their only interest would be the special election.  There is no reason to assume any Trump Democrats would vote for McGrath simply because they both share Row B.  The latest poll shows Democrat Assemblyman Todd Kaminsky with a slight lead over McGrath.

Second, the effect Trump appears to be having on local congressional races has not been positive for Republican incumbents:

“… While a Donald Trump or Ted Cruz nomination “wouldn’t guarantee a down-ballot disaster,” Wasserman wrote, it would make congressional races much more difficult to predict, especially if Trump becomes the GOP standard bearer. Here are the 10 Cook ratings changes that favored Democrats: … Freshman Rep. John Katko (R-N.Y.) moves from Lean R to Toss Up … Rep. Tom Reed (R-N.Y.) moves from Likely R to Lean R … The ratings change in Reed’s upstate New York district came the same week that he endorsed Trump for president.” …”

That is not a good sign.

Pete King is wrong

On: By: admin

There are many reasons not to like Congressman Peter King.  Here is another one:

“Rep. Peter King said Senate Republicans should meet with and hold confirmation hearings on President Barack Obama’s Supreme Court nominee Merrick Garland — and then reject him in committee or in a floor vote …”

No.

All that will do is give the Democrats an opportunity to co-ordinate with their kook Left allies and put on a dog and pony show in front the media that will make the Republicans look bad.

There is no legal obligation for the Senate to hold hearings or take up the nomination and the GOP leadership needs to hold the line on that.

Gun control groups merging

On: By: admin

Two antigun groups are merging:

“Two of the most vocal gun control advocacy groups in the United States recently announced that they are joining forces. Americans for Responsible Solutions, founded by former Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords and astronaut Mark Kelly, and the Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence announced on Wednesday that the two groups are merging to “create a bold new force for smart gun laws.” …”

Baloney.

They are merging in a effort to appear relevant.  Far Left astroturf groups do this all the time to keep their issue fresh before the public and sympathetic media.  The Brady Campaign did that with the Million Mom March and Mayor Bloomberg followed suit with MAIG and MDA.

“… Advocates say the merger also elevates the organization’s capability on a national scale, putting it on the same level as Everytown for Gun Safety, another gun control group that formed after a merger between Mayors Against Illegal Guns and Moms Demand Action for Gun Sense in America …”

No.

Michael Bloomberg has effectively unlimited personal resources to pour into his projects.  Everytown will continue to exist as long as it amuses him.  The others will have to beg for money from wealthy donors and foundations to keep their operations going and that will require them to produce some sort of results favorable to their cause.  If they were good at that they would not have to keep reshuffling their businesses.

Obama’s SCOTUS pick

On: By: admin

President Obama has nominated D.C. Circuit Court Justice Merrick Garland to the Supreme Court.

He has a record of opposition to gun rights:

“… In one 2000 case, Judge Garland, who sits on the U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia, upheld a Clinton administration effort to store gun-buyers’ records. Later in the decade, he joined other judges in a failed bid to reconsider the landmark case that would eventually establish the Second Amendment’s protection of a personal right to bear arms … That 2007 case, Parker v. District of Columbia, ultimately became the landmark Supreme Court case District of Columbia v. Heller. Before it reached the high court, it was heard in Judge Garland’s circuit, and a three-judge panel ruled that the D.C. handgun ban was unconstitutional. Judge Garland wasn’t part of that decision, but he did join three other judges in trying to have the full court get a chance to overturn the ruling …”

NRA has come out against the nomination.

The antis have come out in support of him:

Lone pro-gun Democrat Senator bows out

On: By: admin

Marc Panepinto, the lone pro-gun Democrat State Senator, has announced he will not run for re-election this fall. It is not entirely clear why.  The Buffalo News story seems to indicate his need to put his family and business first.

SD-60 is a heavy majority Democrat district so I do not see it as being a likely pick-up for the GOP. Panepinto’s predecessor Mark Grisanti was a Democrat turned RINO who lost in a four-way free for all in ’14.  Grisanti supported SAFE so Panepinto was a definite improvement.

Can’t argue with this

On: By: admin

Jimmy Vielkind at Politico writes:

“… But with Trump’s rise on the Republican side, Cuomo is poised to become a more valuable asset for Clinton in the general election: a surrogate attack dog who is capable of being as loud, abrasive and combatively New Yorky as Trump himself … “Cuomo can say, ‘I know Donald Trump,’ Then he pivot back to his core messages: government works when it listens to other people — all the stuff he’s been saying,” said one Democratic operative. “But the best way to take on a brash New Yorker is with another one. You gotta fight asshole with asshole.” …”

The guy has a point.

Cuomo/Senate GOP deal still intact

On: By: admin

The deal the Senate Republicans have with Governor Cuomo is still intact as Fred Dicker reports:

“Republican Senate Majority Leader John Flanagan is close to a “Faustian pact’’ with Democratic Gov. Cuomo to raise the state’s minimum wage to a national high of $15 an hour … A source close to Flanagan (R-Suffolk) said the deal would involve Cuomo agreeing to do “little if anything’’ to help Senate Democrats, now just one vote shy of a majority, win the upcoming April 19 special election to replace former Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos (R-Nassau), who was ousted in December after being convicted on corruption charges …”

The writing on the wall was evident a couple weeks ago when Republican Senators didn’t attend the state GOP convention in Buffalo.

Let’s see if this boosts chances of Assemblyman Michael Fitzpatrick or someone else primarying Flanagan this fall.

SAFE Act and ethics reform

On: By: admin

Due to the non-stop parade of state legislators behaving badly, ethics “reform” is being discussed in Albany.  Not only because of the sleaze and corruption, but with the secretive legislative process that hides how bills are written and prevents public discussion.  Dick Dadey of Citizens Union mentioned how the SAFE Act was passed as an example of this:

“… Dadey said Cuomo’s SAFE Act gun law was an example of the typically rushed law-making on important issues. “The public not just benefits knowing what’s happening, but laws are written in a way that they can enforce and make sense,” he said. The SAFE Act, which was pushed through by Cuomo with no advance notice in 2013, was found to have numerous problems, including an inadvertent ban on police weapons and illegal requirements that healthcare providers report mentally ill people to the police …”

There is no way to know if we could have stopped SAFE from becoming law had the legislature allowed time for public comment, but at least we would have had a chance.

SCOTUS fight brewing

On: By: admin

A fight is brewing over a replacement for Antonin Scalia on the Supreme Court.

President Obama is reportedly working on a list of candidates.  Attorney General Eric Schneiderman has joined with Democrat AGs from other states in an attempt to pressure the Republican-controlled Senate to hold confirmation hearings on potential candidates.

This needs to be a total non-starter for the GOP.  Any candidate Obama puts up would likely be as bad if not worse than Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan.  There is no requirement the Senate hold hearings and the Republicans need to stick to that line.