Memorandum to Ed Cox

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The Journal News has a breakdown of new voter registrations in the state:

“… While the number of active voters in the city dropped by about 100,000 from November to April, there were about 95,000 new voters in the rest of the state — including a rare increase in enrolled Republicans … Statewide, Republicans had a jump in enrollment as interest builds for the GOP primary in New York. Democrats had an even larger increase outside the city, up by about 50,000 voters, or 2 percent …”

This isn’t good news for the Republicans.  Half their new registrations are in NYC where they are overwhelmed by Democrats between 6x and 13x except on Staten Island where it is only 1.6x.  They might get some new donors out of it, but not likely any new electeds.

NYGOP chief Ed Cox is quoted as saying:

“… The party, he said, has expanded its voter outreach, such as putting up signs in gun stores to get customers to enroll as Republicans, trying to build off the anger of gun-rights groups to the state’s SAFE Act, a gun-control law adopted in 2013. “It’s all about building for us, in this very blue state, giving the grassroots of the Republican Party an exciting time, and they will be decisive in deciding who the nominee of the party is going to be and, as far as they are concerned, the next president of the United States,” Cox said …”

Uh Ed, the SAFE Act was passed with the full blessing on the Senate Republicans when Dean Skelos refused to even slow down the process.  You own this.  More importantly most of the new Democrat registrations are in Republican parts of the state like Bill Larkin’s district in SD-39.  Reminding people who screwed them over is not a good idea.

“… “There’s a certain amount” of Trump enthusiasm fueling the new voter enrollments, “but it is also the fact that the political cycle and the dismay over the Obama administration – which is helping to fuel the Trump phenomenon,” Cox said …”

That is probably true to an extent as The Donald is a local.  However, Trump’s 70% disapproval rating is not something I’d want to be attached to.

Hillary’s attacks on Bernie/NRA not working

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Hillary keeps trying to link Bernie with the NRA particularly in the black community:

“… As the Democratic primary stretched into its fourth month of intense campaigning, both the Sanders camp and the Clinton camp betrayed signs of mounting frustration, zinging each other over fossil fuel contributions, connections to the National Rifle Association, and, most heatedly, a date for a Brooklyn debate … “Folks can do all the talking they want, but at the end of the day, show me what you have done and what you will do, show me what kinds of results you can get for people,” Clinton said at Brown Memorial Baptist Church, jabbing at Sanders for “voting with the National Rifle Association” by opposing the Brady bill and opposing assigning liability to gun violence for guns makers and sellers …”

She has been doing this for awhile:

“… In Harlem this week, Senator Chuck Schumer of New York commended Clinton for supporting the Brady Bill … A glance at her list of supporters indicates that Clinton is viewed as the stronger candidate in the anti-gun movement. She is supported by prominent New Yorkers, including Schumer, Cuomo and Mayor Bill de Blasio, who are strong advocates for gun-control prevention. The former secretary of state also has earned endorsements from other national gun-control activists, including the Brady campaign and former U.S. Representative Gabrielle Giffords … Other Clinton supporters from the movement include the mothers of the late Trayvon Martin and Jordan Davis …”

Is this tactic working?

“… Armed with troubling private polling data, top state Democrats are fearful that “complacency’’ by less-than-enthusiastic Hillary Clinton voters will lead to surprisingly strong showing by Bernie Sanders in New York’s important April 19 primary, The Post has learned. Democrats are especially worried, as their polls suggest that black voters, while heavily in Clinton’s camp, will stay home on primary day because many assume the former secretary of state and New York senator will easily win the electoral contest … A prominent Democratic activist with strong ties to the Congressional Black Caucus put it in even more stark terms. “They’re very concerned about the black vote — and they should be, because Bernie has momentum and he’s begun making inroads with black voters,’’ the source said …”

No.

SAFE funding in state budget

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This, plus the minimum wage hike, is what the Senate Republicans gave up in exchange for Governor Cuomo largely staying out of the SD-9 special election.

It probably won’t help them. Latest poll shows Democrat Todd Kaminsky leading Republican Christopher McGrath.

Good move by Trump

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The Donald has rescinded his pledge to support the eventual Republican presidential nominee:

“… When asked if he would keep the pledge he signed last September, Trump responded “No, I won’t.” The real estate mogul explained that he was taking back the pledge because, “I have been treated very unfairly,” and listed the Republican National Committee and party establishment among those he believes have wronged him …”

Trump is crying foul because the ~35-40% plurality he’s won in the states is nowhere close to what he would need to win the general election. Worse, his popularity continues to decline:

This means he is only slightly more popular than standing downwind from a burning tire.

The possibility of the Republicans losing control of the House has even come up. We are not there yet, but if the campaign keeps stuff like this up it could go up for grabs. I would not have thought that possible last summer.

Hopefully breaking his pledge will encourage more people to abandon his campaign.

Difference between Democrats and Republicans

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Liz Krueger’s attempt to move her mandatory firearms storage bill S-2491 out of Senate Codes Committee failed yesterday.

Nothing unusual about this.  A couple Democrat Senators do this just about every year with the same results, the Notice of Committee Consideration is rejected on a party line vote.  Krueger knows this is going to happen but she does it anyway to promote the antigun agenda.

The Republicans never do this in the Assembly with pro-gun bills (or any of their agenda items).  They would fail the exact same way, but it would show people that they at least care about the issue and give voters a reason to support them, not to mention it being great fundraising material.  Instead, the Republicans make excuses about NYC being in control for not making any symbolic effort.  This is why they will remain a tiny minority in the lower chamber and will probably soon become a permanent minority in the upper chamber as well.

No leniency

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Convicted crook Dean Skelos on why he does not deserve a jail sentence:

“… As part of his bid for leniency, Gage pointed to Skelos’ “most notable legislative achievements” — including the SAFE Act, the politically contentious series of gun-control laws passed in 2013 … Gage’s sentencing memo included a quote from a letter written by Paul Weidenbaum, an attorney and Skelos ally who said the lawmaker was “instrumental” in passing the SAFE Act.” …”

I’m thinking an extended stay in federal prison is in order based on that statement alone.

Possible Orange Co. bill

On: By: admin

It has been brought to my attention that someone in the Orange County Legislature plans to introduce a local bill requiring premesis-only pistol licenses be issued by the county, no carry.

That would not be legal as the county does not have home-rule authority.  We’ll have to wait and see if any such bill is introduced at the next meeting of the county legislature set for April 8.

Who is registering?

On: By: admin

There has been a spike in voter registration in New York:

“… Between March 10 and March 20, MyDMV, the state’s online voter registration system, processed more than 40,883 voter registration applications, including 20,889 from first-time voters. MyDMV also set an all-time record on Friday, March 18 with 13,961 voter registration applications received, including 7,128 from first-time voters …”

Interesting, but it does not break the information down according to party affiliation or location.  I am not aware of any recent large scale effort by the parties to sign up new people.  I assume if either the Democrats or Republicans suddenly received a new block of registrations they would be crowing about it.

NYC Council’s gun control agenda

On: By: admin

The New York City Council is calling for the state legislature to enact one-gun-a-month A-7026/S-2243 and microstamping A-6192A/S-1113A legislation as part of their 2016 NYS Legislative Agenda package.

Here is a link to their full list (PDF) of items they would like Albany to pass.