Fallout boys

With the latest polls showing Hillary crushing The Donald in New York, both Republicans and Governor Cuomo are worried about the fallout.

First is Senator Jack Martins:

Republican Jack Martins, running for Congress in a battleground Long Island district, is among the Republicans this year who are not endorsing Donald Trump, but still voting for him this year.  In an interview with Bill Samuels’s Effective Radio on AM 970 this weekend, Martins acknowledged both Trump and Hillary Clinton are “flawed candidates.” … “Thankfully, I’ve always run as an individual. I’ve had the opportunity through elective office to take stances of different things and people know who I am, so I’ve been able to use that and show through experience that I listen, I work across the aisle, I get things done,” Martins said …”

This mealy-mouthed answer is the best he could come up with running against a guy who has been busy registering the dead?

Next is Cuomo:

“Gov. Cuomo’s new commitment to Democratic control of the state Senate after years of backing Republicans is a direct result of Donald Trump’s sinking presidential campaign and the possibility it will take GOP senators down with it, senior Democrats told The Post. They also said Cuomo’s new stance … results from his fear that anything short of genuine support for fellow Democrats this year could blow up in his face in the form of a primary campaign against him in 2018 …”

The possibility that Cuomo could get knocked out by the Trump train is one of the few positive aspects I can think of about his campaign.

“… Another prominent Democrat said private polling data showing Trump’s support in New York state sharply declining over the past two weeks convinced Cuomo “that the Democrats have a good chance to take the Senate anyway, so he might as well get on board.” “The polls indicate that several Long Island Republicans may be swept out to sea because of Trump’s unpopularity,’’ the Democrat continued, naming Sens. Kemp Hannon and Carl Marcellino (R-Nassau) as being especially vulnerable …”

Not just on the Island.  There are ~4000 newly registered Democrats in Bill Larkin’s district so he could go.  Plus he turns 89 soon.

Republicans have a chance at a pickup in Buffalo with Chris Jacobs, who is popular and wealthy, but SD-60 is still nearly 2-1 Democrat.  Even if he wins, right now I expect Republicans down 1-2 Senate seats.

One bright spot

With the boat anchor that is the Trump campaign dragging down candidates across the country, there appears to be a bright spot in CD-22.  According to State of Politics, the DNC is concerned enough about 3rd party candidate Martin Babinec to start following him around.

This is one of the districts I had thought the GOP would lose because Claudia Tenney had some problems getting the party to back her.  If the DNC is worried about Babinec siphoning votes away from Kim Myers I am more optimistic Tenney will go the distance.  There is a small Republican majority in the district.

Definition of “winning”

Politico reports:

“A week after Democrats held their national convention in Philadelphia, Gov. Andrew Cuomo hosted a mini-summit with several fellow Democrats in the state Senate to discuss winning strategies in November … One source briefed on the gathering said the group discussed “winning” the chamber for Democrats …”

They already have “won” the chamber having a majority of 32 seats.  They just do not have organizational control.

“… Cuomo also asked Democrats to pipe down with charges that he has hitherto done little to dislodge Republicans from the leadership of the chamber …”

That is because the Republican “leadership” is in title only.  The person running the Senate is Gov. Cuomo.  The problem (for Democrats) lies in the difference of opinion on what winning means to each of them.  For the mainline Democrat caucus, they would consider it a win if they were in charge.  Gov. Cuomo on the other hand wins when the people he wants hold leadership positions and do what he says.  That is what is happening now and what he will be working on maintaining this fall.

Time to endorse

Ed Cox is not happy with Congressman Katko:

Rep. John Katko (R-Camillus) still hasn’t publicly endorsed Republican Donald Trump for president, and state party officials aren’t too happy about it … New York State Republican Party Chair Ed Cox says he understands Katko’s reluctance. “Circumstances are different in Onondaga [County] than they are in a national election this and that. And that’s basically a discussion of policy issues, things like that. But the bottom line is, you’re a Republican, you endorse a Republican candidate.” …”

Where were you Ed when the Senate Republicans screwed over Republican gubernatorial candidate Rob Astorino back in ’14?

Regret

The NRA is probably starting to regret the decision to endorse The Donald:

“… “Hillary wants to abolish, essentially abolish the Second Amendment,” Trump said during a rally in North Carolina on Tuesday.  “By the way, and if she gets to pick her judges, nothing you can do, folks. Although the Second Amendment people, maybe there is, I don’t know.” …”

I don’t believe Trump wants to encourage violence against Clinton, however his poor choice of words makes it easy to see why some people are upset over these remarks.

If this were simply a gaff I’d just write it off, but Trump keeps on doing stupid shit like this when there is lots and lots in Clinton’s past, policies and position statements, that could easily be used against her.

Now he’s trying to spin the uproar as media bias:

“… “Media desperate to distract from Clinton’s anti-2A stance,” he said on Twitter Tuesday evening. “I said pro-2A citizens must organize and get out vote to save our Constitution!” …”

No, that is not what you said.  If that is what you meant you could have said something like this:

“Hillary wants to abolish, essentially abolish the Second Amendment if she gets to pick her judges.  That won’t happen if Second Amendment people turn out and vote for me in November.”

Was this hard?  No.

Here’s my offer to the Trump campaign:  Hire me and I’ll be your point man on gun issues.  Just pay in cash, no checks or Trump steaks.

What Klein means

State of Politics reports:

“There has been a lot of happy talk lately from the so-called “regular” state Senate Democrats about making inroads towards a reconciliation with IDC Leader Jeff Klein in advance of what they hope will be a successful election season that results in their winning back control of the chamber … But IDC Leader Jeff Klein threw cold water on the idea of a peace agreement during a Capital Tonight interview last night, saying any speculation of a reconciliation, or about who might be in the majority come January 2017, is “premature.” …”

This tells me that Klien thinks as I do that the Republicans will lose a couple seats in the Senate and with the IDC will form a governing coalition like before.

You’re in trouble

According to the #2 Republican in the State Senate:

“… [State Senator John DeFrancisco] believes there will be several close state Senate races throughout New York … “There’s a lot of things that could happen,” he said. “I think 90 percent of it will depend on voter turnout.” He’s heard claims made by Democrats that with Republican presidential candidate at the top of the ticket, turnout will be down for the GOP … Trump wasn’t DeFrancisco’s first choice, but he thinks the Manhattan real estate developer will have a positive impact on down ballot races. “If you look at the primaries, whether you agree with Trump or not, the fact is he brought in more Republican voters than have ever been cast in primary elections,” he said …”

You had good turnout for the Nassau special election and blew it.

“…”If we don’t get a good Republican turnout, we’re going to be in trouble,” he said. “If we do, I think we’re going to be in fine shape.” …”

With Congressman John Kato declining to endorse Trump and Richard Hanna saying he’ll vote for Hillary, it’s clear you’re in trouble.

Ruger to donate to NRA to stop Clinton

Ruger’s CEO goes all-in with the NRA to fight Hillary:

“Michael Fifer, CEO of Sturm, Ruger & Co., took a strong political stance on Wednesday during the company’s earnings call.  In addition to advocating support for the Second Amendment, Fifer also pledged large donations to the National Rifle Association, said the company will urge customers to call their congressional representatives … In support of the Second Amendment, Fifer said Sturm, Ruger & Co. will donate $2 to the NRA for every gun it sells, and it will match all donations to the NRA up to $5 million until the election on November 8 …”

What is amusing about this is, from a financial perspective, gun companies would likely have a business boom under Hillary.

The politics of investing

A few weeks ago NYC Comptroller Scott Stringer made a big deal about getting the City Employees Retirement Fund to dump stocks from firearm retailers.

How did that work out?

“After earning only 1.5% on its pension funds for the 2017 fiscal year ended June 30, the city will have to contribute an additional $732 million to the plans over the next three fiscal years … This is the second consecutive year that the city has fallen well short of its investment return target …”

That is what happens when you make investment decisions based upon politics and divest from an industry which has been on a roll.

Cuomo a loser at DNC convention

Governor Cuomo jumped on the gun control bandwaggon with last night’s speech at the DNC convention:

“… “We fought the NRA and we won, and we outlawed assault weapons to keep them from the hands of mad men who are killing innocents.” …”

According to the Washington Post the speech was a stinker:

“… The New York governor will forever be compared to his father — legendary liberal New York governor Mario Cuomo. That’s a tough legacy to follow, especially when it comes to big speeches at Democratic conventions … But, Andrew Cuomo is simply not the orator that his father was and his speech never reached the heights some had hoped for him …”

Perhaps if he had chosen a more popular topic it would have gone over better:

The Governor forgets that the price of his “win” was the end of his own presidential aspirations.