Democrats are clearly worried that David Weprin is going to blow it in CD-9. Obama, Schumer and Cuomo are all getting into the act. Despite his public support for more gun control, he’s received nothing from the Brady’s or NYAGV demonstrating again their lack of political substance.
Perry’s position statement
Not believeable
Continuing with the David Weprin v. Bob Turner race, the Democrats have released their own internal polling which shows Weprin up by 8%. Some thoughts on this:
Weprin Leading and Nearing Majority Support
Democrat David Weprin currently leads Republican Bob Turner by an eight-point margin, 47% to 39%, with 14% still undecided in the special election contest.
Given the 3-1 enrollment advantage, he should have overwhelming support. The fact that even Democrats must acknowledge he only has a small lead underscores Weprin’s weakness.
Weprin Ahead Despite Being Less Known
Turner is familiar to 66% of voters in the district thanks to his previous run for the seat, with 40% rating him favorably and 26% unfavorably. Weprin is familiar to fewer voters (59%), with 35% rating him favorably and 24% unfavorably.
Voters don’t know who Weprin is? Bullshit. He ran for City Comptroller two years ago. He was in the City Council before heading to Albany. Plus there’s his brother Mark and his old man. He’s been in the public eye for years. Everybody knows who David Weprin is.
District Prefers Democrat as Representative
By a wide, 14-point margin, voters here prefer a generic Democratic candidate for Congress (46%) over a generic Republican candidate (32%).
Probably true, but given the voter enrollment a generic Democrat should be closer to 65% right out of the gate. Weprin is nowhere near there. He’s got serious problems and the Democrats cannot spin it otherwise.
Smells like desperation
David Weprin tries raising the gun issue. The Queens Chronicle reports:
“…. The democratic candidate also highlighted his stances on gun control and abortion rights. “I’ve been a strong advocate on gun control,” Weprin said. “There’s a lot of national bills that would really prevent illegal weapons.” …”
With a Sienna poll showing a close race between Weprin and Republican Bob Turner despite the 3-1 Democrat enrollment advantage, why he feels the need to bring up is unclear especially given his past history of antigun advocacy. The campaign must be worried that he could lose. A new GOP poll shows both candidates tied at 42% apiece. I would guess the Democrats have done internal polling and gotten similar results.
Identifying the problem
The title of this National Journal op-ed sums up much of what is wrong with the Republican party, “Insiders: GOP Would Be Better Off With Romney for 2012“:
“Texas Gov. Rick Perry may be surging in polls of Republican primary voters, but his party’s Insiders aren’t convinced he’d be the best general election candidate. More than two-thirds of Republican Insiders say Mitt Romney has a better chance than Perry of defeating President Obama in 2012, according to this week’s National Journal Political Insiders Poll …”
You mean those same insider who have been giving the NY GOP the same bad advice for years, that what the public really wants is a milktoast, leftist/progressive RINO? These insiders are what is wrong with both parties. It’s high time the GOP bosses started listening to the base.
“… Democratic Insiders echoed that assessment by an even larger majority …”
Well that settles it then. Given that these Democrat functionaries have a vested interest in keeping their guy in power doesn’t it seem just a wee bit plausible that they’re going to trash the candidate they are most afraid of?
So what?
From Politico, “Rick Perry wakes up the left“:
“… “He is beyond what we expect from conservative Republicans on the gun issue,” said Dennis Henigan, the acting president of the Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence, who cited Perry’s support for gun rights on college campuses and said it was a sharp contrast with Romney’s “moderate” record. Perry’s rise, he said, had already become “a strong mobilizing force” for gun control activists, whose agenda has been largely ignored by the Obama administration …”
Who cares what Denny thinks. If the antis had the ability to organize politically, then why has Obama (who sympathizes with them) ignored their agenda? The reality is that the Brady’s do not have the ability to affect neither the GOP nomination nor the ’12 general election. Gun control is becoming such a stinker of an issue Paul Helmke bailed out leaving Denny in charge. No matter how he tries to spin it, things are not looking up for the antis.
Help removing MAIG members
Some good news in our efforts to purge MAIG members from office. SEIU has endorsed challenger Maureen Walker in the race against incumbent Mount Vernon Mayor Clinton Young. While I don’t believe guns were an issue for the union, anything that helps turn out voters in the primary for the opposition helps us by piggybacking on our own GOTV efforts to defeat Young in next month’s elections. Gun owners win if Young loses.
Left turn ahead
With the economy in the tank and his disapproval rating at a new high of 55%, it seems increasingly unlikely that Obama will be re-elected next year. Newsmax interviews some pollsters in their article, “Pollsters: Modern History Shows Obama Can’t Win in 2012.” Some excerpts:
“The economy is so dismal that President Barack Obama will have to re-write the political history books if he hopes to win re-election, political strategists say … “His campaign will have to shift the issue,” [Matt Towery, CEO of the nonpartisan InsiderAdvantage] tells Newsmax. “They’re going to have to find a way to make unemployment and the economy not the major issue …” Towery envisions the following options for Obama … Move hard to the left and really push the class-warfare issue …”
It’s an obvious choice and while I do think Obama will go this way, I do not think it will include gun control as part of the strategy. Regardless of his personal opinions on the issue, gun control groups like the Bradys, NYAGV, CSGV, etc. simply do not have the ability to affect Obama’s re-election chances. They have no money, manpower or voting constituency to bring to the table. Pandering to them won’t get him anything, but it will piss off people who might otherwise vote Democrat. If/when the big Left turn comes I do expect much whining from the antis like they did earlier on in his presidency when it became apparent that Obama wasn’t much interested in advancing their big ticket items including Carolyn McCarthy’s magazine prohibition bill H.R. 308.
Reality bites
After generating zero buzz in Republican circles, George Pataki announced that he is not running for president in ’12.
His announcement was immediately followed by the sound of crickets chirping.
Keeping manufacturers in New York
Both Brian Kolb and Tom King were on yesterday’s NRANews talking about Kolb’s proposal to keep firearm manufactures in New York using the Regional Economic Development Councils initiative that Governor Cuomo announced recently.
Here is the press release Kolb’s office sent out.
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