The sound of inevitability

It has started to sink in to various media outlets that H.R. 822 will be voted on in the Senate.  Ronald Brownstein writes at National Journal, “AWOL in a Gunfight“:

“… If the legislation reaches the Senate floor, it has a solid chance of obtaining the 60 votes needed to break a filibuster.  But Obama has been conspicuously silent on the measure—to the mounting frustration of big-city mayors fighting the idea …”

And therein lies the problem for the antigunners.  Those opposed to the legislation are mostly just a handful of leftist mayors and other professional politicans.  The general public isn’t upset over the idea.  It’s not like Congress is being inundated with calls and letters by Joe Citizen opposing this bill.  With the exception of Michelle Schimel, our state legislature has been quiet and so has Governor Cuomo.  Some might not like the idea, but they are not expending political capital trying to defeat it.

“… All 10 states that refuse to recognize any other state permits are part of “the blue wall”—the 18 states that have voted Democratic in at least the past five presidential elections.  In that way, the legislation represents an effort by politicians primarily from conservative red states to impose their views about access to guns onto residents in blue states …”

No.  For this to be true the public would have to angry over this and they very clearly are not.  There is nothing going on even remotely like what we saw with Obamacare or even “gay marriage” where lots of pissed off people were contracting their representatives to voice an opinion.

“… Fearful of alienating blue-collar and rural voters, Obama may be hoping the Senate will bury the bill without his involvement … If Obama stays silent, states at the core of his electoral coalition may soon find their laws controlling concealed weapons shot to pieces on Capitol Hill …”

So?  Brownstein again makes the assumption that H.R. 822 is wildly unpopular in places like New York which it just isn’t.  He also assumes that groups like the Bradys, NYAGV, etc. have an ability to help or hurt Obama depending upon which way he goes.  I do not believe that to be true anywhere.  From the AP story, “Gun issue represents tough politics for Obama“:

“… analysts say that when it comes time to vote, the gun issue is more likely to motivate gun rights activists than gun control supporters …”

Yep.  I have yet to see mentioned anywhere that there would be a downside to Obama if he goes along with the bill.  What I do see if much whining and PSH from the opposition.

“… supporters who hoped to see Obama adopt a stronger stance on guns and act in the wake of the Giffords shooting look like they’re going to be disappointed. “We haven’t given up hope,” said Dennis Henigan, acting president of the Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence, “but our impatience is growing with each passing day.” …”

Yeah, like Obama cares.

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