Gun Politics New York

Frank Bruni at the Times opines that Gov. Cuomo’s endorsement by the WFP jeopardizes his chances of running for President in 2016 as a centrist Democrat:

“… Since becoming governor of New York three and a half years ago, Cuomo has been performing a balancing act with implications for Democratic politics well beyond the state … it speaks to a perennial challenge in both parties: How does a pragmatic politician steer the kind of centrist course that often works best in the long run without provoking a revolt from the more partisan warriors in his or her camp?  Over the weekend, Cuomo confronted such a revolt from the Working Families Party, which was threatening to complicate his re-election by running a candidate to his left.  He was forced to grovel before its members and to accept help in placating them from Bill de Blasio, a man he prefers to pummel and keep at a distance.  “It’s disastrous for him,” one prominent Democratic strategist told me, saying that it undermined Cuomo’s calculations and strategy to this point …”

I agree that it was an embarrassment for Andrew.  If he was really confidant of having a 30 point lead over Rob Astorino there would have been no reason for him to accept the WFP line.  Why did he choose to do that?

“… “He likes to live in the middle,” said another Democratic insider, one who has known him for decades. “That’s where the country is, and to the extent that you can find an authentic political pulse in him, that’s where he is.” … The prospect of a left too potent — and of anyone but him calling the shots — clearly chills him.  He wants to pick and choose his liberal flourishes, not have them chosen for him …”

That may be true on a personal level, but he made a bad decision during his 2013 State of the State to try and revive gun control as an issue, despite the slow death spiral it has been in for years, thinking it would be the foundation of his presidential bid.  It got Cuomo national attention, not for any substance on the issue, but because he totally lost his shit while pushing for it.  It has been downhill for him since then.

SAFE is what opened the door for the WFP.  If you could make God bleed, people would cease to believe in Him.  There will be blood in the water, the sharks will come …  And they did come.

Cuomo had to make promises to get their endorsement.  If he keeps those promises it will be bad for New York which will be bad for his his image nationally.  If he doesn’t keep them it will be bad for his image nationally among Democrats and the hard Left.  Either way, Cuomo comes out the loser.

Gov. Cuomo managed to finagle the Working Families Party ballot line.  It is unclear if he will still be primaried for it or how many of it’s supporters will actually come out to help Andrew.

Bob McManus sums up the nomination process nicely:

“… [It] Revealed the famously ferocious Cuomo for the hollow log that he is — all echo and no innards [and] Provided US Attorney Preet Bharara with a boatload of new leads for his current corruption probes.  Offering policy concessions in return for political favors — which Cuomo & Co. reportedly spent most of Friday and Saturday doing — is a felony in some circles, after all …”

I think this is more of a PR win for Cuomo and won’t translate into much money/votes for his campaign.

Why did Gov. Cuomo choose former Congresswoman Kathy Hochul to be his running mate?  According to the Buffalo News, to provide some cover for the SAFE Act:

“… Besides geographic ticket balancing for an otherwise all-downstate slate for the party’s three other statewide campaigns, Hochul offers some cover for Cuomo on a still-burning issue in many upstate communities: gun control.  In her 2012 congressional race, she was endorsed by the National Rifle Association, whose leaders have been highly critical of Cuomo’s SAFE Act gun control bill passed last year.  “I think she helps with his support upstate and in Western New York where he was damaged a lot by the SAFE Act,” said Assemblywoman Crystal Peoples-Stokes, a Buffalo Democrat who on Wednesday was named as the co-chairwoman of Cuomo’s 2014 campaign with Bronx Borough President Ruben Diaz Jr.  “That’s probably a factor in all of this,” Rep. Brian Higgins, an Erie County Democrat, said of Hochul’s cordial relations with gun groups that continue to fight the SAFE Act. “She’s an upstate voice, including on this issue.” …”

I believe this is the first time elected Democrats have publicly admitted the SAFE Act isn’t as popular as the media keeps saying it is.

“… Cuomo dismissed that theory. “She supports the SAFE Act,” he said. “I’m not opposed to guns. I’m a gun owner … I hunt.  I shoot.” …”

Still pandering to the Fudds, implying SAFE doesn’t affect them.  No mention of guns for self-defense.

Now that Peoples and Higgins have established that Cuomo has an upstate popularity problem, how is Hochul’s pick going over downstate?  According to Fred Dicker:

“Gov. Cuomo’s new running mate for lieutenant governor … is “99 percent certain’’ to be challenged in the Democratic primary by a prominent anti-Cuomo “progressive’’ with millions to spend, The Post has learned.  Cuomo critic Bill Samuels … told associates over the weekend that he’s furious that Cuomo selected Hochul, a bank lobbyist, whom he described as “out of step with the progressive reforms this state needs,’’ one source told The Post.  Samuels, 71, who told an associate that he’s “99 percent certain to run” against Hochul in the September primary, has already begun planning a campaign built around appeals to Mayor de Blasio’s core supporters: labor unions, left-of-center activists …”

This is what opens the door for Rob Astorino.  If there is high upstate voter turnout of people pissed at Cuomo along with more low voter turnout in the City because he doesn’t motivate them, Astorino can win in November.