According to The Capitol, Republicans are considering making an effort to oust Carolyn McCarthy. From, “In Nassau, Emboldened Republicans Reconsider McCarthy Challenge“:
“… In years past, Republicans have struggled to find candidates to run against “Saint Carolyn,” so dubbed both for her nurse-like demeanor (she is, in fact, a licensed nurse) and for her life story—she ran for Congress after her husband and son were shot by a crazed gunman on the Long Island Rail Road … But last year, Nassau Republicans retook the county executive, county comptroller and the majority in the county legislature. That has helped convince [Joe] Mondello and other local Republicans that McCarthy can beat beaten, despite her years of big victories …”
The reason for her years of big victories were largely due to the losers the GOP put up against her. The district originally had been evenly split with Republican-Democrat enrollment. It now has a small Democrat advantage. If the GOP made a real effort to defeat her there’s a good chance they could have done it. She’s a single issue candidate who has coasted along without having to defend her record. What else does she talk about besides guns? What are her accomplishments?
So are Republicans going to make a serious effort to get rid of her now? I’m thinking not.
“… some wonder if Mondello, despite his protestations, is holding his fire. New York is likely to lose at least one congressional seat in the next round of redistricting. Since Rep. Pete King is seen as likely to find his district combined with another, that could put King in the same district as another Republican, if McCarthy loses this year. That could make for some awkward times in Nassau come 2012 …”
This I do not like. New York is probably going to lose two or three congressional seats, not just one.
On a more positive note:
“… Still, the last term for McCarthy has not been an easy one. She had back surgery earlier this year, which severely limited her mobility for months. Pennsylvania Rep. John Murtha, an ally who had taken McCarthy under his wing, died, and Murtha’s former staffer-turned-defense-lobbyist Paul Magliocchetti, who used to be a big donor to McCarthy’s re-election campaigns, shut down his firm in the wake of a federal investigation. Plus, the issue of gun safety, which afforded McCarthy a national profile, has faded from public consciousness. McCarthy associates say that she has seen a softening in her numbers in the district in recent months …”
They left out the strong anti-Democrat, anti-incumbent mood. Most pundits and polls I’ve seen predict significant gains for Republicans this fall. A halfway decent candidate could defeat McCarthy if the Republicans make that effort.