It’s always a good idea to follow the money.
In this case Politico reports, “Over two-thirds of Assembly party money goes to four races.” Those races include AD-113, AD-115, AD-116, and AD-145. Three other big money races include AD-106, AD-121, and AD-126.
Out of these I believe the three antigun incumbents mostly likely to lose are:
- AD-145, where incumbent John Ceretto flip-flopped on party registration.
- AD-116, where incumbent Addie Russell barely won re-election last time by less than 100 votes.
- AD-106 where incumbent Didi Barrett doesn’t even live. NRA is doing robocalls for challenger Terry Sullivan.