{"id":1511,"date":"2010-05-19T15:03:54","date_gmt":"2010-05-19T19:03:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.gunpoliticsny.com\/?p=1511"},"modified":"2010-05-19T18:40:33","modified_gmt":"2010-05-19T22:40:33","slug":"reconsidering-challenging-mccarthy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.gunpoliticsny.com\/?p=1511","title":{"rendered":"Reconsidering challenging McCarthy"},"content":{"rendered":"

According to The Capitol, Republicans are considering making an effort to oust Carolyn McCarthy<\/a>. \u00a0From, “In Nassau, Emboldened Republicans Reconsider McCarthy Challenge<\/a>“:<\/p>\n

“… In years past, Republicans have struggled to find candidates to run against \u201cSaint Carolyn,\u201d so dubbed both for her nurse-like demeanor (she is, in fact, a licensed nurse) and for her life story\u2014she ran for Congress after her husband and son were shot by a crazed gunman on the Long Island Rail Road … But last year, Nassau Republicans<\/a> retook the county executive, county comptroller and the majority in the county legislature. \u00a0That has helped convince [Joe] Mondello and other local Republicans that McCarthy can beat beaten, despite her years of big victories …”<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The reason for her years of big victories<\/em> were largely due to the losers the GOP put up against her. \u00a0The district originally had been evenly split with Republican-Democrat enrollment. \u00a0It now has a small Democrat advantage. \u00a0If the GOP made a real effort to defeat her there’s a good chance they could have done it. \u00a0She’s a single issue candidate who has coasted along without having to defend her record. \u00a0What else does she talk about besides guns? \u00a0What are her accomplishments?<\/p>\n

So are Republicans going to make a serious effort to get rid of her now? \u00a0I’m thinking not.<\/p>\n

“… some wonder if Mondello, despite his protestations, is holding his fire. \u00a0New York is likely to lose at least one congressional seat in the next round of redistricting. \u00a0Since Rep. Pete King<\/a> is seen as likely to find his district combined with another, that could put King in the same district as another Republican, if McCarthy loses this year. \u00a0That could make for some awkward times in Nassau come 2012 …”<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

This I do not like. \u00a0New York is probably going to lose two or three congressional seats, not just one.<\/p>\n

On a more positive note:<\/p>\n

“… Still, the last term for McCarthy has not been an easy one. \u00a0She had back surgery earlier this year, which severely limited her mobility for months. \u00a0Pennsylvania Rep. John Murtha<\/a>, an ally who had taken McCarthy under his wing, died, and Murtha\u2019s former staffer-turned-defense-lobbyist Paul Magliocchetti, who used to be a big donor to McCarthy’s re-election campaigns, shut down his firm in the wake of a federal investigation. Plus, the issue of gun safety, which afforded McCarthy a national profile, has faded from public consciousness.<\/strong> McCarthy associates say that she has seen a softening in her numbers in the district in recent months …”<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

They left out the strong anti-Democrat, anti-incumbent mood. \u00a0Most pundits and polls I’ve seen predict significant gains for Republicans this fall. \u00a0A halfway decent candidate could defeat McCarthy if<\/span> the Republicans make that effort.<\/p>\n