{"id":12813,"date":"2016-03-21T11:06:59","date_gmt":"2016-03-21T15:06:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.gunpoliticsny.com\/?p=12813"},"modified":"2016-03-21T11:06:59","modified_gmt":"2016-03-21T15:06:59","slug":"trumps-effect-on-state-senate-race","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.gunpoliticsny.com\/?p=12813","title":{"rendered":"Trump’s effect on State Senate race"},"content":{"rendered":"

State of Politics reports that New York Republicans<\/a> are unsure of what to do about Donald Trump<\/a>:<\/p>\n

“… as the national GOP establishment continues to find ways of denying him the nomination at their convention in Cleveland this summer, Republicans in New York are divided. Privately, some Republican operatives admit the party is in a bind over whether to embrace Trump<\/a> and the new voters he\u2019s brought to the polls or run away from him and his vulgar, racially charged rhetoric ahead of the general election … And yet, some Republicans see Trump\u2019s potential for a big margin of victory in the presidential primary, to be held the very same day as the special election, as a potential boon for the GOP candidate in the race, attorney Chris McGrath<\/a> …”<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

While there is still some debate about the merits of the former option, the latter scenario appears unlikely given these two things.<\/p>\n

First, a lot of Trump’s support comes from Democrats and disenchanted voters<\/a>. Democrats cannot vote in the Republican primary so their only interest would be the special election.\u00a0 There is no reason to assume any Trump Democrats would vote for McGrath simply because they both share Row B.\u00a0 The latest poll<\/a> shows Democrat Assemblyman Todd Kaminsky<\/a> with a slight lead over McGrath.<\/p>\n

Second, the effect Trump appears to be having on local congressional races<\/a> has not been positive for Republican incumbents:<\/p>\n

“… While a Donald Trump or Ted Cruz<\/a> nomination \u201cwouldn\u2019t guarantee a down-ballot disaster,\u201d Wasserman wrote, it would make congressional races much more difficult to predict, especially if Trump becomes the GOP standard bearer. Here are the 10 Cook ratings changes that favored Democrats: … Freshman Rep. John Katko (R-N.Y.)<\/a> moves from Lean R to Toss Up … Rep. Tom Reed (R-N.Y.)<\/a> moves from Likely R to Lean R … The ratings change in Reed\u2019s upstate New York district came the same week that he endorsed Trump<\/a> for president.” …”<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

That is not a good sign.<\/p>\n