A gift from God

Having screwed up the SD-9 election I figured the end of the NY GOP was finally upon us.

Then this happened:

Early indications point to this being worse than either the Shelly Silver or Dean Skelos corruption trials.  It’s like God himself has thrown the Republicans a lifeline.  It will be their #1 campaign issue this fall.

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Nothing ever goes as planned

It looks as if the deal Senate Republicans had with Governor Cuomo to stay out of the SD-9 election did not produce the planned results:

“… With votes still being counted, Republicans late Tuesday cautioned that paper ballots also still need to be counted in the contest. At midnight, with 100 percent of the precincts reporting, Kaminsky had 49.96 percent to McGrath’s 48.82 percent, a difference of just 780 votes out of 68,000 total cast, according to the Nassau County elections board …”

The antis will claim a victory here even though I have not seen any evidence they blacked up their endorsement with GOTV action.  McGrath was not reaching out for the gun vote either.

A couple of interesting points:

  1. It appears that Republicans had a slight turnout advantage in the district.
  2. A lot of people on Long Island switched parties since last fall.

UPDATE: Republican turnout was very high and they still managed to blow it.

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Antigun attacks failing

Hillary Clinton and the antigunners, along with their allies in the media and legislature, are throwing everything they can at Bernie Sanders over his D- rating from NRA leading up to tomorrow’s New York primary.

Has it been working?

New Yorkers Against Gun Violence also endorsed Todd Kaminsky last Wednesday for tomorrow’s SD-9 special election.

How did that go?

“… Republican Chris McGrath has opened an 8-point lead in the closely watched battle to fill the seat of disgraced ex-Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos, according to a new poll … The results are a sharp turnaround from a March 15th Siena poll, which had Kaminsky, a former federal prosecutor, holding a slim lead — 47% to 45% — in the 9th Senate District, which covers a portion of Nassau County …”

They never learn.

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Kasich’s leadership team

I knew Al D’Amato was involved with John Kasich’s campaign. State of Politics lists him as being a part of Kasich’s New York leadership team.

If that is not reason enough not to vote for him, Kasich has been endorsed by George Pataki as well. Clearly Kasich is making a play for the milk toast vote.

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Kasich’s pitch to New Yorkers

According to John Kasich:

“Republican presidential hopeful John Kasich says he’s the state Senate Republicans’ best hope for maintaining their razor-thin grip on power … Speaking to reporters beforehand, Kasich revealed part of his pitch: If Donald Trump or Texas Sen. Ted Cruz win the GOP nod, it will hurt the Republican senators’ chances at winning in November. “I will tell you the majority in the New York State Senate will not be a majority with the other two guys being the nominee of the party,” Kasich said. “So what we really need to do is get these people, these critics, to get behind me and get their people to drop out so we can actually beat Hillary Clinton.” …”


I bet Kasich has been getting advice from the likes of Al D’Amato and/or RINO political consultants from the NYC metro area.  The same guys who ran the state Republican party into the ground by making it Democrat-lite.  The last thing they need to do is to get behind a candidate who would remind voters of George Pataki.

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Memorandum to Ed Cox

The Journal News has a breakdown of new voter registrations in the state:

“… While the number of active voters in the city dropped by about 100,000 from November to April, there were about 95,000 new voters in the rest of the state — including a rare increase in enrolled Republicans … Statewide, Republicans had a jump in enrollment as interest builds for the GOP primary in New York. Democrats had an even larger increase outside the city, up by about 50,000 voters, or 2 percent …”

This isn’t good news for the Republicans.  Half their new registrations are in NYC where they are overwhelmed by Democrats between 6x and 13x except on Staten Island where it is only 1.6x.  They might get some new donors out of it, but not likely any new electeds.

NYGOP chief Ed Cox is quoted as saying:

“… The party, he said, has expanded its voter outreach, such as putting up signs in gun stores to get customers to enroll as Republicans, trying to build off the anger of gun-rights groups to the state’s SAFE Act, a gun-control law adopted in 2013. “It’s all about building for us, in this very blue state, giving the grassroots of the Republican Party an exciting time, and they will be decisive in deciding who the nominee of the party is going to be and, as far as they are concerned, the next president of the United States,” Cox said …”

Uh Ed, the SAFE Act was passed with the full blessing on the Senate Republicans when Dean Skelos refused to even slow down the process.  You own this.  More importantly most of the new Democrat registrations are in Republican parts of the state like Bill Larkin’s district in SD-39.  Reminding people who screwed them over is not a good idea.

“… “There’s a certain amount” of Trump enthusiasm fueling the new voter enrollments, “but it is also the fact that the political cycle and the dismay over the Obama administration – which is helping to fuel the Trump phenomenon,” Cox said …”

That is probably true to an extent as The Donald is a local.  However, Trump’s 70% disapproval rating is not something I’d want to be attached to.

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Hillary’s attacks on Bernie/NRA not working

Hillary keeps trying to link Bernie with the NRA particularly in the black community:

“… As the Democratic primary stretched into its fourth month of intense campaigning, both the Sanders camp and the Clinton camp betrayed signs of mounting frustration, zinging each other over fossil fuel contributions, connections to the National Rifle Association, and, most heatedly, a date for a Brooklyn debate … “Folks can do all the talking they want, but at the end of the day, show me what you have done and what you will do, show me what kinds of results you can get for people,” Clinton said at Brown Memorial Baptist Church, jabbing at Sanders for “voting with the National Rifle Association” by opposing the Brady bill and opposing assigning liability to gun violence for guns makers and sellers …”

She has been doing this for awhile:

“… In Harlem this week, Senator Chuck Schumer of New York commended Clinton for supporting the Brady Bill … A glance at her list of supporters indicates that Clinton is viewed as the stronger candidate in the anti-gun movement. She is supported by prominent New Yorkers, including Schumer, Cuomo and Mayor Bill de Blasio, who are strong advocates for gun-control prevention. The former secretary of state also has earned endorsements from other national gun-control activists, including the Brady campaign and former U.S. Representative Gabrielle Giffords … Other Clinton supporters from the movement include the mothers of the late Trayvon Martin and Jordan Davis …”

Is this tactic working?

“… Armed with troubling private polling data, top state Democrats are fearful that “complacency’’ by less-than-enthusiastic Hillary Clinton voters will lead to surprisingly strong showing by Bernie Sanders in New York’s important April 19 primary, The Post has learned. Democrats are especially worried, as their polls suggest that black voters, while heavily in Clinton’s camp, will stay home on primary day because many assume the former secretary of state and New York senator will easily win the electoral contest … A prominent Democratic activist with strong ties to the Congressional Black Caucus put it in even more stark terms. “They’re very concerned about the black vote — and they should be, because Bernie has momentum and he’s begun making inroads with black voters,’’ the source said …”


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SAFE funding in state budget

This, plus the minimum wage hike, is what the Senate Republicans gave up in exchange for Governor Cuomo largely staying out of the SD-9 special election.

It probably won’t help them. Latest poll shows Democrat Todd Kaminsky leading Republican Christopher McGrath.

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